If I invest $50k/yr for 30 years, will I have enough to withdraw 4% and net $120k/yr?

If I invest $50k/yr for 30 years, will I have enough to withdraw 4% and net $120k/yr? I'm setting out to answer the question in the title. The answer, after the analysis below, seems to be "close, but no". Below is the first version analysis that assumes flat growth rates in an index/bond portfolio. I'm working my way up to a simulator to model sequence of returns risk. Has anyone done anything similar? Am I over-thinking it? **Goals** 1. Invest enough to have $4M in real terms in 30 years to that I can withdraw 4% and net a real 120k/year after taxes (conservative flat 25% tax rate, need to do more work here). Answers the question: "Does this strategy get me the results I want"? 2. See a "plan" and really spell out what I think I would buy/sell at each fund/rebalance step. Answers the question: "Is this strategy, in these accounts and funds, feasible"? **Assumptions** * 30 years to invest * Initial contribution amount: 50k (keeping this in real terms, growing nominally per year) * Inflation: 3% * Starting portfolio * Roth: 98k VTI * 401k: 75,340 FXAIX; 560 FSPSX; 32,100 VBTLX * Taxable: 115k FTIHX; 0 VTEB (for rebalancing into muni bonds when the 401k can't) * Nominal growth rates (I need to confirm these) * VTI, FXAIX, FTIHX, FSPSX: 8% * VBTLX, VTEB: 3.3% * Target allocations * Domestic: 54% * Intl: 36% * Bonds: 10% -> 40% increasing by 1% per year, but keeping domestic/intl at 60/40 * Roth contribution limits start at 7k but grow in increments of 500 based on compounding inflation * 401k contribution limits start at 24.5 but grow in increments of 1,000 based on compounding inflation **How does it work?** 1. Start with the portfolio and assumptions above 2. Per year, 1. Increase target bond allocation by 1% 2. Calculate this year's roth and 401k contribution limits 3. Calculate how much to contribute to each account (with a real 50k it's pretty simple: 7k roth + 24.5k 401k + 18.5k taxable, grown at inflation) 4. Calculate how much to fund and rebalance to keep target allocations within 5% of goals (this was unexpectedly hard to get right but it's essentially: rebalance only within the 401k until you absolutely need to use the taxable and that typically happens because the bond allocation grows too fast for what the 401k can hold and new money can't keep up with compounding equities). The simulation fails if we can't keep the portfolio balanced with the assumed levers. I learned that the 401k will eventually be too small to hold the full bond allocation. 5. Grow funds by assumed nominal rates **Future Work** * More research on what bond funds I want (and find those that avoid buy/sell expenses) and more accurate nominal growth rates * After doing more reading, I think this portfolio is far too bond heavy. I'm going to try 100% equities for the first 20-25 years and then rebalance into some allocation of bonds. The right mix will depend on the Monte Carlo simulations I want to add. * Add monte carlo simulations the model sequence of returns risk - this will really show what bonds are doing for the portfolio * I'm assuming one fund/rebalance event per year in this iteration, but obviously 401k contributions happen every paycheck and I backdoor into a roth so I could do that monthly. Need to get better DCA baked in * Account for capital gains taxes when selling taxable funds to cover rebalancing * Think about adding intl exposure to the roth as a rebalance lever - maybe that'll help avoid taxable events * Generate a "plan" so I can see what actually happens: "At each fund/rebalance step, what do I do exactly"? * More accurate math to determine whether I've hit my 120k/year real goal after taxes * Simulate drawdown scenarios - basically a "plan" to see what happens to the portfolio if I draw it down at 4%, what taxes might pop up, and sequence of returns risk. Answers: "What happens during retirement"? **Results** [Full breakdown is here](https://postimg.cc/RqyrYX2M) but basically this portfolio ends 30 years with $9M nominal / $3.7M real, which is just shy of the $4M goal.