The Myth of a Better Government (GDP growth %). I1.
(Yes! I'm the 2040 challenge guy. [Link to that post](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStockMarket/s/saTpdDuwwJ))
In this post, I'll cut through the noise that political parties and their IT cells cause on social media.
Let's compare the terms of MMS (2004-2013) and NM (2014-2024) wrt their performance on the GDP front.
Source of data: [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?end=2025&indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&locations=IN-CN&start=2004).
MMS:- NM:-
2004- 7.9% 2014- 7.4%
2005- 7.9% 2015- 8.0%
2006- 8.1% 2016- 8.3%
2007- 7.7% 2017- 6.8%
2008- 3.1% 2018- 6.5%
2009- 7.9% 2019- 3.9%
2010- 8.5% 2020- (5.8%)
2011- 5.2% 2021- 9.7%
2012- 5.5% 2022- 7.6%
2013- 6.4% 2023- 7.2%
2024- 7.1%
2025- 7.6%
Avg %: 6.82% 6.19%
MMS decisively wins this battle. The data takes into account factors such as inflation which was comparatively higher during MMS' tenure. However, things are never black and white.
People would point towards 2020 Covid Pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis in order to explain slower growth rates and they aren't entirely wrong. But the fundamental nature of the two events was entirely different.
If the 2008 Financial Crisis was a black hole, USA was the singularity and India was outside of the event horizon. On the other hand, I'd compare the Covid Pandemic to a large tsunami which engulfed the world economy whole. Covid was a much bigger disaster for India than the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This deserves a whole different post if I'm being honest.
For the sake of comparison, if we remove these adverse events from our calculation (which we shouldn't as it would just paint a rosy picture instead of a real comparison) by not considering 2008 and 2020 data, we arrive at the following numbers:-
MMS: 7.23%
NM: 7.28%
A statistical tie.
I will tell you why removing these years does not paint the whole picture. Notice that we are still considering 2009 and 2021 which were rebound years with extraordinary growth. The greater the fall, the greater the rise.
Another interesting thing to note here is how the self inflicted problems of NM government is responsible for their overall underperformance. Yes, the negative growth year of 2020 played a major role but demonetization and GST caused short term shocks which worsened their average. The delayed effect of these events caused a slowdown in the years of 2017-2019. The long term benefits of these decisions is something to be argued.
Conclusion: You shouldn't fall prey to propaganda. No matter who's in power (BJP Or Congress), Indian economy will continue to grow at it's steady pace and yes, we'd still get dwarfed by prime China. Most of what you hear is noise.
Should I make this into a series, where I compare different aspects of MMS and NM government? Or do you guys have a different idea? Let me know!
If I have made a mistake, please correct it in the comment section itself.