Is Wall Street Completely Wrong About Adobe (ADBE)?

AI Summary

{"summary": "The author questions whether Adobe's current market pessimism is overblown, suggesting that AI might serve as a distribution channel rather than a threat to its core business.", "reason": "Author expresses own view that ADBE looks interesting on value grounds with AI-as-distribution-channel rationale; quote verbatim supports judgment.", "ideas": [{"symbol": "ADBE", "direction": "watch", "thesis": "Adobe is potentially undervalued due to excessive market pessimism regarding AI disruption. The company's strategy of integrating its tools into the AI ecosystem could turn AI into a distribution channel rather than a competitor. The author is monitoring the stock for a potential entry point based on value fundamentals.", "thesis_short": "Potential value play if AI becomes a distribution channel for Adobe.", "quote": "Maybe AI becomes more of a distribution channel for Adobe than a killer of Adobe.", "confidence": 0.6, "sentiment": 0.4, "timeframe": "unspecified"}], "model": "deepseek-flash", "verified": true, "extraction_model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite"}

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Is Wall Street Completely Wrong About Adobe (ADBE)?

What do you guys honestly think about Adobe here?

I’m trying to figure out if we see $225-230 first or if this thing finally gets some relief and goes back toward $250-260.

Earnings were good imo. Not amazing, but definitely not bad enough for how the stock is acting. With Adobe it feels like whatever they report, the market just wants more. Especially around AI.

At this point I’m wondering how much pessimism is already priced in.

I’m looking at it more from a Benjamin Graham/value perspective and at these prices it starts looking pretty interesting to me. Good business, still making a lot of money, but sentiment is horrible.

Brent and the geopolitical mess didn’t help either. Software was already weak and then oil goes up and the whole market gets nervous again.

The main bear case is obviously AI.

But I’m not fully convinced AI is going to destroy Adobe like some people think.

Adobe seems to be taking the approach of putting its tools into the AI ecosystem instead of trying to fight every AI company. They already have cooperation/integrations with OpenAI and ChatGPT and I don’t think we’ve really seen yet what that can mean financially for Adobe.

AI companies are basically racing against each other right now. Time matters.

So why would they all waste time building every editing, design, PDF, image and video tool from zero if Adobe already has all that stuff and can provide it?

Maybe AI becomes more of a distribution channel for Adobe than a killer of Adobe.

Obviously I could be totally wrong and this ends up being a value trap. Maybe AI makes a lot of Adobe products easier to replace and the market is seeing something I’m not.

Also sometimes this whole AI boom itself feels a bit crazy. Huge capex, huge power demand, more people pushing back against data centers, and even some engineers/researchers warning that we’re moving too fast.

Anyway, curious what people here think.

Is Adobe actually cheap now or still a falling knife?

And what comes first in your opinion, $225-230 or $250-260?

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