Past month: ADS -15 %, NKE -12 %, ONON -31 %, DKS -38 %, DECK -18 %, LULU -22 %.

AI Summary

{"summary": "Author observes a broad selloff across athletic footwear/apparel and sporting goods stocks, notes NKE and ADS are relatively resilient, and states he is going 100% NKE ahead of October 1 earnings.", "reason": "The author expresses a directional investment judgment (long NKE) based on a fundamental rationale (relative resilience compared to peers and a desire to limit downside).", "ideas": [{"symbol": "NKE", "direction": "long", "thesis": "The author argues Nike and Adidas have been relatively resilient versus a broad athletic footwear/apparel selloff (down 12-15% vs a 23.7% average decline among peers), and that Nike's upcoming October 1 earnings will reveal whether it is even more resilient. He has decided to go 100% NKE to limit downside, planning to be patient if earnings disappoint. The main risk is that profitability concerns keep pushing numbers and the stock lower.", "thesis_short": "100% NKE ahead of Oct 1 earnings", "quote": "to limit downside I’ve decided to go 100 % NKE. If earnings are good on October 1, I’ll be happy. If they’re bad I’ll be patient.", "confidence": 0.75, "sentiment": 0.6, "timeframe": "around October 1 earnings"}], "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite", "verified": true, "extraction_model": "deepseek-v4-flash"}

Score 1

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Past month: ADS -15 %, NKE -12 %, ONON -31 %, DKS -38 %, DECK -18 %, LULU -22 %.

This is a very broad selloff across athletic footwear/apparel and sporting goods. There’s been a lot of talk about Nike stock crashing and where might the bottom be. Well, it’s clear that Adidas and Nike are relatively resilient compared to the rest of the bunch. They’re down 12-15 % in the past month while the average decline between the stocks listed in the title is 23.7 %. The caveat here is that DKS, ONON and LULU all crashed more than the others because they reported earnings. Nike earnings are coming up in a few weeks and if Nike drops further then it’ll  probably be near the average decline in the period. If it doesn’t drop on earnings then it’s even more resilient than initially thought. 

Can we just take a moment to discuss how crazy the sell off is though? Not for NKE specifically but for all these stocks. We’re talking multi year lows of 5, 10, 15 years. And this isn’t COVID and another lockdown that demolishes retailers in an obvious way. I’m surprised the market isn’t more forward thinking. Or maybe it is and I just am too optimistic about the future. Because based on how these stocks that depend heavily on bright consumer discretionary spending are crashing, it looks like we’re in for nothing but war and tariffs for decades to come. 

I want to point out that most of these companies’ revenues are much larger than they were back when their stock prices were last this low. The problem is mostly profitability- and the worry that numbers will keep dropping. 

Take a look at Macy’s and Kohl’s. Their stocks are up 10-20 % in the past year while all of the above are down like 20-50 % in the past year. There are some deals to be made here if you are willing to take the risk. I’m not sure the biggest upside short term is where I choose to place my money but to limit downside I’ve decided to go 100 % NKE. If earnings are good on October 1, I’ll be happy. If they’re bad I’ll be patient.

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