Are you the house, or the gambler?
Are you in the business of **prediction?** Are you a **gambler?** I leave that to the trading discords and social media options gurus. As you know 80-90% of options traders lose money. I sleep well at night by understanding that I have the probabilities in my favor. My **edge** is because realized volatility typically comes in **below** implied volatility. By doing the little things correctly, trade after trade, week after week, month after month, I am playing the **percentages** and achieving consistent results. It is not necessarily exciting. Admittedly, buying a long call and having it 10X is exhilarating and fun; however, it is low percentage and I lost a lot of money playing that game. In order to win, are you gambling that you can predict the direction, the magnitude and the timing **all correctly**? This is a **losing game.** *I am the house, I am the casino.* Sure, being the house is not that interesting, it's not that fun, but it is **profitable!** The hotels and casinos in Las Vegas are uber nice because they make extraordinary profits. Of course, the books are written about how to beat the house. The videos online teach you to hone your strategy to buy calls & puts to beat the house, but the reality is, the house ultimately wins. When I sell OTM Put Credit Spreads (or OTM CSP), I am effectively the house. ***So how about you, are you the house, are you a gambler, or maybe a little of both?***