$MAT DD: Mattel is worth ~$4B. It has $1.2B of buybacks left. Shorts are piling in. What could go right?

$MAT DD: Mattel is worth ~$4B. It has $1.2B of buybacks left. Shorts are piling in. What could go right? # alright... regards I need someone to tell me why this is stupid before I put my life's saving money into Barbie dolls!! lol I went down a rabbit hole looking at Mattel. 🚀🚀🚀 # 1. Thesis MAT is trading just under $14/share. About 286M shares outstanding. So roughly a $4 BILLION company. Mattel owns: **Barbie** **Hot Wheels** **UNO** **Matchbox** **Fisher-Price** **American Girl** **Monster High** **Masters of the Universe** The entire thing... for comparison I am not saying Mattel IS Marvel, Disney, Nintendo, whatever. calm down. but hey we can dream! bottom line, .. Mattel is wildly undervalued, being priced as a toy company, when the business is heading to a... # IP-driven play and family entertainment business!!! that sounds like corporate bullshit until you look at what they're actually doing. # 2. Mattel authorized $1.5 BILLION to buy back its own stock In February the board authorized: **$1.5B share repurchase program** By June 30 they had: **$1.2B REMAINING** The whole fucking company is worth around $4B.... do that math...t hat's an authorization equal to roughly **30% of today's market cap.** Mattel had over 320M shares outstanding around a year ago...now it's around 286M. Same Barbie...fewer pieces of paper claiming ownership of Barbie. Some pu\*\*y boomer math: If earnings eventually stay flat and you delete 10% of the shares, earnings PER SHARE go up. crazy I know. # 3. Meanwhile the shorts are going the OTHER direction! This is where I got interested...latest reported short interest I found: **25.9M shares short** about: **14.5% of float** and around: **6.4 days to cover** earlier this year the number was way lower... if you buy this because somebody says MOASS i'm personally coming to repossess your Barbie Dreamhouse. lol but 14-15% short interest is enough that if the fundamental story changes quickly, there are suddenly a lot of people standing on the wrong side of the door. Shorts aren't the thesis. ...they're gasoline sitting next to the thesis. # 4. Barbie already proved the IP biz this is what is mindblowing.. Barbie movie happened. it became one of the biggest movies on earth. and Mattel's stock basically said: "cool story bro." that's actually part of the activist shareholder's argument. Southeastern Asset Management owns more than **4% of Mattel**...these guys aren't posting DD from the Wendy's parking lot. they said they see value **approaching $30/share TODAY.** over 2x EASY, but they are even underestimating the potential of this rocket ship when they start collecting those sweet licensing fees AT SCALE! forget Disney...forget Marvel. their digital destiny is : licensed games with other studios their own games Roblox/Fortnite type platforms movies/content then use all of that to make Barbie/Hot Wheels/UNO/etc bigger a way simple way to view this: **does the market eventually value these brands at substantially more than $4B?** YES YES YES , they even made a fucking Matchbox movie. October 9. **Matchbox. John Cena. Sam Hargrave directing. Apple + Skydance + Mattel Studios.** # Recap time.. **Market cap:** \~$4B **2026 buyback target:** $400M **Remaining authorized buybacks:** $1.2B **Short interest:** \~25.9M shares **Short % float:** \~14.5% **Activist ownership:** \>4% **Activist claimed value:** approaching $30/share **Stock:** \~$14 **Brands:** Barbie .. Hot Wheels . UNO .. Matchbox .. Fisher Price .. Monster High .. He-Man etc. management says they're trying to turn the thing from a toy manufacturer into an IP/entertainment company. **What if they nail it!??!?!**