{"summary": "Author analyzed 1,006 earnings prints across 129 liquid optionable names, finding the average day-1 move was ±7.19% versus ±9.01% a week later, with 62% of weeks ending bigger than day one and 80.7% direction persistence. Names like PINS, HOOD, BLK tend to have day one as the whole story, while LI, MRK, MRNA kept extending in 7 or 8 of their last 8 reports.", "reason": "Accepted: research-worthy statistical study with identifiable tickers and a directional/behavioral edge (post-earnings drift persistence and extension), useful for options positioning.", "ideas": [{"symbol": "LI", "direction": "watch", "thesis": "The author's study of 1,006 earnings prints found that LI extended its post-earnings move beyond day one in 7 or 8 of its last 8 reports, suggesting the earnings move is not a one-day event for this name. The mechanism is persistent post-earnings drift, where the stock keeps moving in the same direction as day one (direction stuck 80.7% of the time overall). The author frames this as a repeatable 'personality trait' of specific names, implying a tradeable edge around earnings rather than a fundamental view.", "thesis_short": "LI extends post-earnings move in 7-8 of 8 reports", "quote": "But LI, MRK, MRNA kept extending in 7 or 8 of their last 8 reports.", "confidence": 0.65, "sentiment": 0.3, "timeframe": "one week after earnings"}, {"symbol": "MRK", "direction": "watch", "thesis": "The author's study of 1,006 earnings prints found that MRK extended its post-earnings move beyond day one in 7 or 8 of its last 8 reports, suggesting the earnings move is not a one-day event for this name. The mechanism is persistent post-earnings drift, where the stock keeps moving in the same direction as day one (direction stuck 80.7% of the time overall). The author frames this as a repeatable 'personality trait' of specific names, implying a tradeable edge around earnings rather than a fundamental view.", "thesis_short": "MRK extends post-earnings move in 7-8 of 8 reports", "quote": "But LI, MRK, MRNA kept extending in 7 or 8 of their last 8 reports.", "confidence": 0.65, "sentiment": 0.3, "timeframe": "one week after earnings"}, {"symbol": "MRNA", "direction": "watch", "thesis": "The author's study of 1,006 earnings prints found that MRNA extended its post-earnings move beyond day one in 7 or 8 of its last 8 reports, suggesting the earnings move is not a one-day event for this name. The mechanism is persistent post-earnings drift, where the stock keeps moving in the same direction as day one (direction stuck 80.7% of the time overall). The author frames this as a repeatable 'personality trait' of specific names, implying a tradeable edge around earnings rather than a fundamental view.", "thesis_short": "MRNA extends post-earnings move in 7-8 of 8 reports", "quote": "But LI, MRK, MRNA kept extending in 7 or 8 of their last 8 reports.", "confidence": 0.65, "sentiment": 0.3, "timeframe": "one week after earnings"}, {"symbol": "PINS", "direction": "avoid", "thesis": "The author's study found that for PINS the day-one earnings move basically IS the whole story, with the week rarely exceeding it, implying limited post-earnings drift to trade. The mechanism is that these names fully price the earnings reaction on day one, so holding or positioning for a week-long extension offers little edge. The author presents this as a name-specific 'personality trait' rather than a fundamental bearish view.", "thesis_short": "PINS day-one move is the whole story", "quote": "PINS, HOOD, BLK — day one basically IS the whole story, the week barely ever exceeded it.", "confidence": 0.6, "sentiment": -0.2, "timeframe": "one week after earnings"}, {"symbol": "HOOD", "direction": "avoid", "thesis": "The author's study found that for HOOD the day-one earnings move basically IS the whole story, with the week rarely exceeding it, implying limited post-earnings drift to trade. The mechanism is that these names fully price the earnings reaction on day one, so holding or positioning for a week-long extension offers little edge. The author presents this as a name-specific 'personality trait' rather than a fundamental bearish view.", "thesis_short": "HOOD day-one move is the whole story", "quote": "PINS, HOOD, BLK — day one basically IS the whole story, the week barely ever exceeded it.", "confidence": 0.6, "sentiment": -0.2, "timeframe": "one week after earnings"}, {"symbol": "BLK", "direction": "avoid", "thesis": "The author's study found that for BLK the day-one earnings move basically IS the whole story, with the week rarely exceeding it, implying limited post-earnings drift to trade. The mechanism is that these names fully price the earnings reaction on day one, so holding or positioning for a week-long extension offers little edge. The author presents this as a name-specific 'personality trait' rather than a fundamental bearish view.", "thesis_short": "BLK day-one move is the whole story", "quote": "PINS, HOOD, BLK — day one basically IS the whole story, the week barely ever exceeded it.", "confidence": 0.6, "sentiment": -0.2, "timeframe": "one week after earnings"}], "model": "deepseek-v4-flash"}