55 years of data on adding 20% gold to US stocks: return unchanged, odds of a 50% drawdown down from 26% to 6%

55 years of data on adding 20% gold to US stocks: return unchanged, odds of a 50% drawdown down from 26% to 6% Bogle didn't like gold. Fair enough: on its own it did 8.8% a year from 1971 to 2026 against 11.3% for US stocks, with a worse drawdown (62% vs 50%). I wanted to know what it does inside a portfolio at a fixed weight, rebalanced. Data is World Bank gold, Ken French's US market with dividends, 80/20 rebalanced monthly, before fees. Realised 1971–2026: 100% stocks: 11.33%/yr, worst fall 50.3% 80/20: 11.30%/yr, worst fall 39.3% Then reshuffled the 55 years 10,000 times in 6-month blocks: Halved at some point: 26% of histories for stocks alone, 6% with the gold Median return 11.3% either way Caveats: US only, no storage or ETF cost on the gold, and 20% is a test weight not an optimum. The catch is 1980 to 2000. Gold fell 58% while stocks went up 22x and you'd have been rebalancing into it for twenty years. If you'd have sold, ignore all of the above.