Noticed something odd tracking GDP vs Nifty this year
Been logging GDP prints against my portfolio for a while now, mostly out of curiosity. Watching the market slip this quarter, I honestly expected the Q1 GDP number to come in weaker too, figuring the GDP growth would explain the fall in the market. Then the GDP data dropped, and it genuinely caught me off guard, coming in strong despite the market's mood.
Took me a while to actually get why. GDP measures what already happened in the economy over those three months. The market isn't reacting to that at all; it's pricing in what investors expect to happen next, quarters ahead. So a weak market doesn't mean weak GDP, and a strong GDP print doesn't guarantee the market follows. They're just not answering the same question.
*(Not investment advice, just something I've been tracking for myself.)*