u/No-Bicycle-7660 ·
Reddit — r/smallstreetbets
· September 07, 2026 at 09:42
· ⬆ 36 pts
· 💬 10 comments
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It's getting dangerously close to levels (152-153) where big commercial banks and funds in Japan will have to rapidly liquidate their US Treasury bond holdings. I'd expect an YUGGGEEEEE repurchase on the 9th or 10th by the Treasury of long dated bonds (way above the $4Bn floor) to pre-empt this and upward pressure on yields. Also it looks to me like the market is now pricing 50bp rate increase by BOJ on the 17th as the baseline scenario, rather than 20-25.
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the WH is escalating the Iran conflict (and oil prices) again to prolong the Treasury hoarding (it's a liquid USD asset) to act as a cushioning effect. If the US / JP carry trade unwound at the same time as oil prices crashed .... oh boy.