u/Lanky_Tax_7003 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· September 04, 2026 at 18:42
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 14 comments
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Summary
Post evaluates ISRG after roughly a one-third drawdown, asking whether it is finally a decent entry or a value trap.
Author acknowledges new robotic surgery competition from Medtronic Hugo and J&J Ottava, but notes procedures/placements remain strong and forward multiples have compressed from ~60x to mid-30s.
Quality: reasonably researched observational DD with real financial metrics; however, the author does not declare a firm position, so it reads more like a balanced discussion prompt than a definitive thesis.
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Comments14
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Anyone been looking at Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) lately? Stock is down like a third from its January highs and I'm trying to figure out if this is finally a decent entry or a value trap in the making. The bear case seems to be all about competition - Medtronic's Hugo got FDA clearance in Dec and J&J just launched Ottava, so the 20-year monopoly story is technically over. But when I look at the actual numbers, placements and procedures are still growing high teens, recurring revenue is like 86% of sales, and the forward multiple compressed from 60x to mid 30s. Feels like the market priced in share losses that haven't shown up anywhere yet. On the other hand 35x isn't exactly cheap for a value sub, I know. Curious what people here think - is the moat (surgeon training, installed base) as sticky as bulls claim, or is this Cisco 2000 where the business stays great but the stock goes nowhere for a decade?
ISRG still has high-teens procedure/placement growth, roughly 86% recurring revenue, and a forward multiple that compressed from about 60x to the mid-30s. The selloff may reflect competitive fears that have not yet appeared in the financials, creating a potential opportunity if the moat stays intact. ISRG is a high-quality watchlist candidate, but 35x earnings limits the margin of safety for an immediate high-conviction buy. Hugo/Ottava share gains could begin showing up in placements/procedures; growth could decelerate; the multiple could keep compressing; ISRG could be a Cisco-like case where the business stays good but the stock stalls.
This Reddit post, published September 04, 2026,
features u/Lanky_Tax_7003
discussing ISRG.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.