The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit 4.81% (Highest Since Nov 2023)

The 10-year just broke 4.81% today. Highest since Nov 2023. We are up 80 bps since March and this selloff looks real. Between oil from the US-Iran escalations and Warsh sounding hawkish at Jackson Hole, the Fed is probably going to hike again on Sept 15 (CME tool says 66% chance). Bunds are spiking too and JGBs crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, so foreign buyers aren't coming to rescue our U.S. debt. Hard to see how stocks don't dump here when you can get a 4.8% risk-free rate. Anyone needing to refinance debt next year is in serious trouble. Look at TLT too, it's getting absolutely obliterated. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife while inflation fears are creeping back into the picture. If you look at the equity risk premium right now, it makes zero sense to take on individual stock risk when you can just lock in nearly 5% sitting in risk-free paper. Every major fund is going to have to rebalance out of high-multiple tech and into fixed income if this yields hold above 4.8%. Source: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/bond-yields-treasurys-inflation.html)