JUST IN: JPMorgan warns a global food supply shock could hit within the next year.

JPMorgan warns a global food supply shock could hit within the next year. NOAA says there’s a greater than 90% chance this El Niño will be “very strong” through fall and winter. For October through December, that chance rises to 95%. There’s also a 69% chance it becomes historic. Stronger than every El Niño measured since 1950. This is the next supply shock. El Niño is a warming of Pacific waters that shifts weather worldwide. It raises drought risk across parts of Asia and Australia, flood risk across parts of the Americas, and can disrupt crops, hydropower and shipping. All at once. The last El Niño pushed Panama into its third-driest year on record. Now the same risk is back. The Panama Canal is preparing to cut daily ship traffic again. The canal moves 5% of world trade. More than 70% of its cargo starts or ends in the US. Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and far below normal. COVID showed what happens when supply shocks hit a system with no room to absorb them. Three years of higher prices. The next inflation shock is already forming.