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# TLDR: ENVX is around $3.15 after getting absolutely murdered when the CEO suddenly stepped down. Market cap is only around $700M now.
At the same time:
* their 100% silicon smartphone battery passed 1,000+ cycles
* commercial smart eyewear batteries are already shipping
* drone opportunities alone are over $100M
* total drone/defense/industrial pipeline is around $183M
* Q3 guidance was reaffirmed even after the CEO left
Either the market knows something horrible that hasnt come out yet, or everyone finally gave up on this company right before the thing they've spent years trying to commercialize actually starts working.
My bigger thesis is that **batteries could be one of the next major tech trades after AI.**
Not because batteries are new.
Because a bunch of new industries are suddenly running face first into battery limitations at the same time.
And ENVX is my favorite high risk/high reward way to play it.
# First, why batteries?
Everyone keeps asking "whats the next Nvidia?"
I think thats probably the wrong question.
Nvidia existed forever before AI.
GPUs weren't new.
Then suddenly a new workload appeared that needed an insane amount of GPU compute and something mostly associated with gaming became one of the most strategically important pieces of hardware on earth.
I think something similar could happen with batteries.
Look at what we're building now:
**AI glasses**
**autonomous drones**
**humanoid robots**
**military unmanned systems**
**eVTOL**
**phones doing more AI locally**
**massive data centers**
**grid storage**
**renewables**
**millions more EVs**
Every one of those eventually runs into some version of:
**where the fuck does the power come from?**
There are basically 2 battery gold rushes happening.
One is:
**make batteries cheaper**
Grid storage, cheap EVs, data centers, renewable buffering.
The other is:
**put way more energy into way less space and weight**
Drones, phones, AI glasses, robots, defense, aviation.
ENVX is mostly a play on the second one.
# So what happened to ENVX?
ENVX was already beaten to shit.
Then this week CEO Raj Talluri suddenly stepped down.
The market did not take that well lol.
Stock is now around:
**$3.10-$3.20**
Market cap:
**roughly $680-$700M**
This thing used to trade in the $20s.
Obviously the immediate question is:
**why the fuck does the CEO leave right when the company is supposedly approaching the commercialization moment they've spent years working toward?**
I dont know.
And anybody pretending they know is full of shit.
Company says he left for another opportunity and it wasn't because of a disagreement.
They reaffirmed Q3 guidance.
Customer programs apparently havent changed.
T.J. Rodgers, chairman and biggest shareholder, is taking a more active role as Executive Chairman.
Ryan Benton is interim CEO.
So I see 2 possibilities.
# Bear interpretation
Talluri knows theres more bad news coming and got the hell out.
# Bull interpretation
Guy actually left for another job, market assumed the worst, and a company already trading like shit just had another couple hundred million dollars erased from its valuation even though guidance and the customer roadmap didnt change.
I have no idea which one is right.
Thats part of the gamble.
But unlike buying this thing at $20, you're now buying it around $3.
# Why I still care about ENVX at all
The entire ENVX thesis basically comes down to **100% silicon anode batteries.**
Most lithium ion batteries use graphite in the anode.
Silicon can store way more lithium than graphite.
Problem is silicon expands massively while charging and historically destroys itself pretty quickly.
Thats why silicon batteries have been "the future" forever without actually taking over.
Enovix designed the whole cell architecture around controlling that expansion.
For years the question was:
>
Now we're getting closer to:
>
That second question is way more interesting from an investing perspective.
Because they're finally starting to commercialize it.
# The 100% silicon battery is actually shipping now
This is probably the most important part of the entire DD.
ENVX's smart eyewear battery is now in **commercial production.**
Not prototype production.
Not "customer evaluation samples."
Actual commercial shipments.
Rough numbers:
**Q2: \~2,100 packs**
**Q3 expected: \~19,000 packs**
Existing 2026 order:
**50,000 packs**
Is that enough revenue to matter?
No lol.
I dont care about the 50k itself.
I care that the process went:
prototype
to qualification
to certification
to customer reliability testing
to commercial shipment.
Because ENVX has spent years getting laughed at for not being able to manufacture this technology at scale.
They are atleast proving now that they can manufacture and commercially ship the architecture.
Small scale today.
Hopefully not small scale forever.
# AI glasses could make this way more important
Think about what actually useful AI glasses need eventually.
Cameras.
Microphones.
Speakers.
Wireless radios.
Sensors.
Displays maybe.
On device AI compute.
And somehow the thing is still supposed to sit on your face all day without weighing 400 grams.
You cant just solve that problem by making the battery twice as large.
Energy density becomes one of the limiting factors.
This is pretty much the exact problem ENVX is designed to solve.
More energy in the same physical volume.
If smart glasses stay some niche gadget nobody wants, fine.
But if Apple, Meta, Google etc actually turn glasses into another major personal computing platform?
Battery tech becomes incredibly important.
ENVX is already commercially shipping into that category before its even really taken off.
Thats interesting to me.
# Smartphones could be the real monster catalyst
This is probly more important near term.
ENVX's lead smartphone battery has now passed:
**1,000+ cycles**
which matters alot when one of the biggest historical problems with silicon is cycle life.
They say theres one final accelerated cycle life qualification test remaining.
There is also another smartphone OEM going through its own qualification process.
Now think about the scale difference.
Smart glasses order:
**50,000 batteries**
A serious smartphone:
**millions or tens of millions of batteries**
ENVX only did around:
**$9M Q2 revenue**
So getting into a major smartphone isn't just some nice 10% revenue boost.
It could completely change what this company looks like.
And I think the biggest possible single catalyst is pretty obvious:
# ENVX announces a recognizable Tier 1 smartphone customer and actual production volume.
If that happens while the stock is still anywhere close to this valuation, I dont think the market reaction is going to be subtle.
# DRONES might be the sleeper catalyst
This is the part I didnt really understand until digging deeper.
ENVX's drone/defense/industrial opportunity pipeline went from:
**$130M**
to:
**$183M**
in one quarter.
Drone opportunities by themselves:
**over $100M**
Before somebody starts calculating $183M of next year revenue:
# THIS IS NOT BACKLOG
Its management's estimated peak annual production value from identified opportunities.
Potential sales.
Not guaranteed sales.
Not signed checks.
But a decent amount of the customers are apparently already:
**testing cells**
or
**designing them into products**
Thats a hell of alot more interesting than "we believe drones might be a market someday."
# Why drones are basically perfect for advanced batteries
Every gram matters.
A better battery can potentially mean:
more range
more loiter time
more payload
larger sensors
more communications gear
more explosives
whatever the drone is doing.
Now compare the economics.
A cheap EV manufacturer cares massively if your fancy battery adds hundreds or thousands of dollars to the vehicle.
The military buying a $50,000 drone probably doesnt give a shit if the battery costs another $100 if it increases mission time 20%.
Performance matters way more than battery cost.
Thats why I think drones/defense could be one of the first markets where expensive next generation batteries actually become economically obvious.
# ENVX isn't randomly chasing defense either
Their Korean battery business already sells into military applications.
Things they've disclosed include:
**naval munitions**
**subsea defense systems**
**military battery systems**
**drones**
So its not:
>
They already have defense customers.
The opportunity is taking those existing relationships and selling higher energy density cells into more systems.
And considering whats happening with drone warfare globally, I'd rather be exposed to that market than not.
# Why is this thing only $3 then?
Because ENVX has fucked up before.
A lot.
They've spent years telling investors commercialization was getting close.
Manufacturing sucked.
Timelines slipped.
The Fremont strategy didnt work like planned.
They shifted high volume focus toward Malaysia.
Production yields still need improvement.
Investors heard "almost there" too many times and eventually said fuck off.
Then the CEO abruptly leaves.
So now the market basically says:
>
Which honestly is exactly why I'm interested.
I dont want the battery company where everyone already believes the story and the stock trades at some stupid valuation.
I want the one where the market expects failure but theres a credible path to proving them wrong.
# The CEO leaving is NOT something I'm hand waving away
This is the biggest new risk.
Company says theres no disagreement.
Fine.
But CEOs normally don't leave at the exact moment shareholders think the company is about to finally hit its inflection point.
Maybe thats meaningless.
Maybe its not.
Nobody outside the company really knows yet.
The thing that makes me willing to accept that risk is the valuation.
At $15-20, I'm not touching this after an unexplained CEO exit.
At $3.15 and a \~$700M valuation?
Now we're atleast getting paid for taking the risk.
If another shoe drops, this can absolutely go to $2 or $1.
Thats why its a moonshot and not a retirement fund.
# What needs to happen
My checklist is pretty simple.
# Smartphone qualification completes
This is probably catalyst #1.
# Actual commercial smartphone launch
Even more important.
# Major OEM is identified
Narrative completely changes IMO.
# Drone opportunities turn into real orders
Not pipeline.
Purchase orders.
# Smart eyewear volume ramps hard
50k to hundreds of thousands or millions.
# Fab2 yield improves
This might actually be more important than everything above.
Amazing battery + shit manufacturing = shit business.
# The valuation math at $3.15
This is where I think things get really interesting.
Approx market cap today:
**\~$700M**
Very rough price/valuation math ignoring future dilution:
**$5 = \~$1.1B**
**$7.50 = \~$1.6B**
**$10 = \~$2.2B**
**$15 = \~$3.3B**
**$20 = \~$4.4B**
**$25 = \~$5.5B**
So for the stock to roughly **5x**, ENVX needs to become something like a:
**$3.5B company**
Thats obviously alot more than $700M.
But ask yourself this:
If ENVX had:
commercial silicon batteries
a real smartphone program
AI eyewear customers
meaningful drone/defense sales
and proven high volume manufacturing
would a **$3-5B valuation** during a battery bull market actually sound insane?
I dont think so.
They just need to actually get there without blowing themselves up first.
# My completely scientific trust me bro price scenarios
# Everything still sucks
Smartphone drags forever.
CEO exit was warning us.
Manufacturing still doesnt work.
**$1.50-$3**
# Smartphone qualification works
Market starts believing again.
**$5-$7**
# Smartphone production + real drone wins
Actual growth story now.
**$8-$15**
# Silicon batteries become a major market theme + recognizable customers
This is the moonshot.
**$15-$25+**
At $20 we're talking roughly 6x from todays price.
At $25 around 8x.
Not because the company becomes the next CATL overnight.
Because it starts from a valuation of only around $700M.
# Why I think batteries could be the next gold rush
The technology isn't new.
Thats not the point.
GPUs weren't new before AI either.
What changed was how valuable GPU performance suddenly became.
I think battery performance could be approaching a similar shift.
We suddenly have:
AI wearables
drones
robots
autonomous military systems
EVs
eVTOL
massive stationary storage
data centers
renewables
all demanding different kinds of batteries at massive scale.
And a bunch of battery technologies that were stuck in R&D forever are finally getting commercialized:
silicon anodes
lithium metal
solid state
sodium ion
new LFP
dry electrode manufacturing
new battery materials
This feels less like:
**"somebody needs to invent a better battery"**
and more like:
**"who can actually manufacture the next generation of batteries at scale?"**
Thats where real companies and real fortunes can get made.
# What proves me wrong
Pretty easy.
**Smartphone qualification fails**
**Fab2 yields stay shit**
**CEO departure turns out to be the first warning of something worse**
**drone pipeline never becomes actual revenue**
**eyewear never scales**
**cash burn/dilution gets out of control**
Any of those can absolutely destroy the thesis.
And if 2 or 3 happen together this thing could get completely smoked.
# Final thought
I'm not saying ENVX is the next Nvidia.
I'm saying I think theres a reasonable chance **batteries become one of the next major speculative technology sectors after AI**, and ENVX is currently one of the more interesting ways I can find to bet on the high energy density side of it.
The stock is destroyed.
Nobody trusts management.
The CEO just quit.
And the entire company is worth around $700M.
Meanwhile they're finally commercially shipping a 100% silicon battery, smartphone qualification is reaching the important part, and the drone/defense pipeline is expanding fast.
Maybe the market is completely right and this company is fucked.
But if the market is wrong?
The upside from $3 is kind of ridiculous.
# BONUS: the more degenerate battery moonshots
ENVX is my favorite and the one I have the most actual conviction in.
But if this entire battery gold rush thesis is right, theres 2 other tiny names I've been looking at that are way more speculative.
These are too small for WSB right now, so don't be an idiot and try to sneak them into WSB posts.
# BONUS #1: $SES, the casino ticket
SES is around:
**$0.60**
with a basic equity value around:
**$200M-ish**
This company used to be one of those lithium metal EV SPAC dreams.
That original timeline basically went to shit and the stock got obliterated.
But whats left is actually kinda interesting.
SES now has:
**drone batteries**
**ESS/storage**
**lithium metal technology**
**AI battery material discovery**
and actual revenue.
They finished Q2 with roughly:
**$64M cash**
plus
**$99M short term investments**
So around:
**$163M liquidity**
against a company worth only a bit over $200M.
Before someone screams "free money", no.
They're burning cash.
Its not a liquidation arbitrage.
But the valuation gives you an idea of how little the market expects from the actual businesses.
# The drone part is what interests me most
SES is scaling NDAA compliant drone battery production in Korea from around:
**200,000 cells/year**
to:
**1,000,000+ cells/year**
Drone battery revenue has started.
Management says American/allied drone customers have audited the line and they're working on demand going out into 2028.
I want actual named contracts before I really trust that.
But again:
This is a \~$200M company.
It doesn't need to dominate the Pentagon.
One decent drone program can move the needle.
# SES also owns an ESS business
This is something ENVX doesnt really give you.
Through UZ Energy, SES has exposure to:
commercial storage
industrial storage
residential ESS
potential data center/storage demand
So SES weirdly touches both sides of my battery thesis.
High energy batteries for flying shit.
And stationary batteries for storing massive amounts of power.
Could both fail?
Yep.
Could one of them work?
Also yep.
At $200M thats what makes it interesting.
# SES also has an actual battery AI platform
This sounds like the most SPAC sentence ever written.
But apparently theres some real business here.
Their Molecular Universe platform uses AI/computational chemistry to discover battery materials.
They've started generating subscription revenue from a major battery company and have multiple customers testing materials generated by the system.
No clue how big that business becomes.
Could be nothing.
But imagine the market enters some:
**AI + BATTERIES = NEW THING**
phase.
And theres a tiny public company named SES AI doing:
AI battery materials
drone batteries
energy storage
lithium metal
The meme writes itself.
Not a reason to buy.
Definitely a reason it could get stupid if the fundamentals start improving at the same time.
# The really stupid SES trade: Jan 2028 $0.50C
The contract I've been watching:
**SES Jan 21 2028 $0.50 calls**
around:
**$0.45 premium**
Expiration breakeven:
**$0.95**
I wouldn't call these "cheap."
Its a ton of premium relative to a $0.60 stock.
But you get a long time for the thesis to work.
Expiration intrinsic value:
**SES $1 = \~$0.50**
**SES $2 = \~$1.50**
**SES $3 = \~$2.50**
**SES $5 = \~$4.50**
**SES $10 = \~$9.50**
From a $0.45 entry:
**$2 SES = \~3.3x**
**$3 = \~5.5x**
**$5 = \~10x**
**$10 = \~21x**
And yes, the mathematically insane 5000%+ outcome exists if SES somehow ends up in the $20s.
That would require basically a full blown mania and a completely different company than SES is today.
Dont base a trade on that lol.
I care about the possibility of SES becoming a **$500M-$1B company**, not a $10B company.
# The biggest SES risk is dilution
They have authorization for a:
**$150M ATM**
For comparison, the whole company is only around $200M.
They hadnt used it as of the last filing.
But if SES suddenly pumps to $2 or $3?
I'd almost be suprised if management DIDN'T raise some money.
Thats the real danger.
Also SES is below the NYSE $1 minimum share price requirement and might eventually reverse split.
A reverse split itself doesnt erase existing options. OCC adjusts the contract.
The annoying part is you can end up holding an adjusted option with garbage liquidity.
I'm way more worried about dilution and the business failing than I am about the reverse split.
# BONUS #2: $ELBM, the shovel
This one is completely different.
Electra Battery Materials isn't really betting on some revolutionary battery chemistry.
They're building a **battery grade cobalt sulfate refinery in North America.**
The stock is around:
**$0.60**
and the company is tiny.
My incredibly sophisticated ELBM thesis is:
# finish the fucking refinery.
Thats basically it.
Management currently says construction is:
**on schedule**
**on budget**
with roughly this timeline:
**Q4 2026: early commissioning**
**Q2 2027: mechanical completion**
**Q3 2027: production ramp**
**Q4 2027: commercial production**
And they already have an anchor buyer.
**LG Energy Solution has committed to roughly 60% of planned output.**
Government support from the US and Canada is helping fund construction too.
So ELBM doesn't have to invent the next battery.
It needs to go from:
tiny distressed construction project
to
actual operating strategic North American battery materials supplier.
Thats a potentially massive valuation difference.
# Why I'm not going huge on ELBM
Cobalt isnt universal.
LFP batteries use no cobalt.
Sodium ion uses no cobalt.
Manufacturers have also been trying to reduce cobalt usage.
So if the next battery gold rush is mostly:
LFP + sodium ion + silicon
ELBM might not capture nearly as much of it as you'd expect.
Theres also major construction/financing risk.
If the refinery gets delayed and suddenly needs another $50M:
stock falls
raise money
dilution
stock falls more
raise money again
classic microcap death spiral.
So ELBM is the smallest position for me.
But if they finish this thing on schedule and start shipping material to LG, a tiny company can suddenly get valued very differently.
# My battery moonshot ranking
# #1 ENVX
Highest conviction.
Silicon batteries, smartphones, AI eyewear, drones, defense.
Currently priced like the market has almost completely lost faith.
# #2 SES
Highest pure convexity.
Tiny valuation, drone ramp, ESS, AI materials, crazy long dated options.
Also possibly a complete dumpster fire.
# #3 ELBM
Picks and shovels.
Finish a strategically important North American refinery and actually start selling material to LG.
Simpler thesis, but very binary.
The way I think about the 3:
**ENVX:** "does next generation battery technology actually commercialize?"
**SES:** "can a dead SPAC turn into a real drone/storage battery company before the market notices?"
**ELBM:** "can a tiny North American battery infrastructure project actually get finished?"
Different bets.
Same potential battery gold rush.
All 3 can absolutely go to shit, so size them accordingly (position: 3500 shares)