u/Jake-adriculture ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· August 17, 2026 at 18:23
· ⬆ 18 pts
· 💬 42 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
Post analyzes Nike (NKE) at $40/share and 3.9% dividend yield as a possible value/turnaround investment.
Author sees positives in profitability, balance sheet, brand, and upside potential, but is not buying yet.
He wants confirmation: all-region growth, Converse plan, a clear stock bottom, and returning momentum.
Quality assessment: Well-researched, balanced DD with specific financial and strategic focus, but it is more “watching and waiting” than a conviction buy.
Score18
Comments42
Upvote %75%
▶ Full Post Text
At $40/share, people are saying Nike is a "Life changing opportunity". I put 20 -30 hrs worth of research into NKE stock and distilled my findings into a 2 hr video looking into their financials, products, supply chain, marketing and competitors to determine whether Nike's turnaround is actually working. If interesting, the entire video is worth a watch. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSdTGhjKdwQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSdTGhjKdwQ)
TLDR:
Things I like -
\- Profitable and Cash generative
\- Operationally flexible, strong balance sheet and debt management
\- Strong Brand (Though potentially weakening)
\- Stock price down with lot's of upside potential as they re-secure global demand
\- Dividend yield is fairly decent (Though I question sustainability with diminishing free cashflow)
\- Strong alignment in execution of Win Now strategy (Though I question effectiveness)
Things I want to see before I buy -
\- Returning to growth preferably across all regions
\- Resolution and a clear plan for Converse
\- I want to see a clear bottom (I don't mind being a little late to the party)
\- I want to see volume and momentum returning to the stock.
Nike is profitable, cash-generative, has a strong balance sheet, and offers a 3.9% dividend yield, but free cash flow is weakening and Converse/brand strength are uncertain. The stock is down significantly; if Nike executes its “Win Now” strategy and returns to global growth, the upside could be substantial — but the author wants confirmation before entering. NKE is a potential turnaround value play, but the prudent move is to wait for a clear bottom, improving fundamentals, and renewed momentum. Dividend sustainability via declining free cash flow, ongoing brand erosion, Converse remains unresolved, and the turnaround may not produce growth across all regions.
This Reddit post, published August 17, 2026,
features u/Jake-adriculture
discussing NKE.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.