Treasury yields remain high even after all recent reports indicated softer inflation and econ data. Is this concerning for the market?
u/BGID_to_the_moon ·
Reddit — r/StockMarket
· August 14, 2026 at 14:19
· ⬆ 25 pts
· 💬 5 comments
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Over the past 2 weeks, all major economic reports have indicated both the economy and inflation are weaker than expected. ADP and NFP both indicated weak hiring activity, CPI was in line with expectations, PPI was weaker than expected, and today's retail sales report was concerningly poor.
Odds of the federal reserve hiking rates at the September FOMC meeting have dropped from over 80% near the end of July to about 30% as of this morning.
Surprisingly, long term treasury yields have remained high through all the data. The 10 year yield is still at multi decade highs of over 4.65%.
What's keeping yields up despite all the weak economic data? Is it uncontrolled government borrowing/spending? Big tech's accelerating debt issuance? The general belief that oil stays high as the middle east conflict drags? I'm unsure of the primary driver of high yields, but whatever it is, it's outweighing this month's weak data.
And will the resiliency of treasury yields eventually become a concern for the stock market? Markets haven't cared at all so far - the S&P is all time highs despite elevated yields. But with tech companies increasingly relying on debt to fuel ai spending, I'm starting to wonder if elevated yields will eventually stifle spending and growth.
I'm unsure if high yields are a warning sign or if market resiliency reflects the expectation that earnings will outpace the rising cost of borrowing. But I am personally leaning towards the former being more likely.