Reddit (RDDT): Done the DCF but want to understand ARPU runway

Hey folks, I've been looking at Reddit as a potential investment. I built a reverse-DCF to understand what is roughly embedded into the current price. I arrive at $150-160/share with the following combination of assumptions: 1.       ARPU (both US and international) roughly double from Q2 2026 figures by 2030 2.       US DAU grows very modestly and international DAU almost doubles by 2030 3.       Operating margin (GAAP, including SBC) reaches 45% by 2030 4.       Discount rate 10% and PGR 3% The operating assumptions are fairly bullish, but Reddit has been executing well so far. The investment case is basically an **ARPU bet** — I don't anchor Reddit to Meta because I think the platforms and user economics are too different for that comparison to be particularly useful. Rather than debate the valuation, I'm more interested in where and why this operating thesis could be wrong. I'm deliberately looking for evidence against it as much as evidence supporting it. The main question for me is whether Reddit is simply harvesting obvious low-hanging monetisation improvements from a very low starting point, or whether advertiser/user behaviour suggests there is genuinely a long runway beyond that. A few questions for people with direct experience: **1. If you've run ads on Reddit (or Reddit Max), what was your actual experience?** What were you advertising? How did performance compare with Meta/Google/TikTok/etc.? Most importantly, after the initial test, did you keep or increase your Reddit budget, or turn it off? **2. Is Reddit becoming useful for a broader set of advertisers?** My impression is that Reddit naturally works well for categories with strong communities/purchase research — software, finance, gaming, enthusiast products, etc. — but has historically been much less compelling for areas such as broad CPG/brand advertising. For agency/marketing people: has the range of clients for whom Reddit actually works expanded, or does it remain a fairly narrow “fit” platform? **3. When Google's AI Overview already gives you a decent answer clearly sourced from Reddit, do you still click through to the actual thread? Or does the summary usually satisfy you?** Curious whether your behaviour has changed over the last year. **4. If you're outside the US/UK/Canada/Australia: is Reddit actually useful in your market and language?** Has it become a genuine local product/community, or is it still mostly an English-language product with some local crowds attached? Thank you