[DD] Short the overvalued italian shitco software basket $BSP

AI Summary

Summary

Author is shorting $BSP, calling it an overvalued Italian software roll-up of old consumer apps (Evernote, AOL, Vimeo, Meetup, WeTransfer) trading at $52 with a $32B market cap.
Thesis: headline growth is acquisition-driven, organic growth is only 5–6%, net revenue retention is 91–95%, and the stock has run up from a $29 IPO amid low float and a short squeeze.
Trade: bought 21k in October 16 $55 puts; believes a 318.5M share lock-up expiration around November 3 will crash the stock.

Quality assessment: More researched than typical WSB speculation, with real valuation and lock-up mechanics, but still speculative and heavily reliant on timing and squeeze reversal.

Score 18

Comments 10

Upvote % 91%

▶ Full Post Text

TLDR: Some Italians trying to replicate Buffett by buying dogshit software products and jacking prices. The $BSP stock will melt like their Italian cheese reserves. Buy Puts

**Background**

My last trade to long $SKM was close to a 2x here, I like asymmetric setups based on fundamental value.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qnqd2l/dd\_anthropic\_pure\_play\_skm/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qnqd2l/dd_anthropic_pure_play_skm/)

**Summary**

$BSP trades at $52. The market cap is $32B.

The business is a roll-up of old apps: Evernote, AOL, Vimeo, Meetup, WeTransfer.

The headline growth is 84% per year. But acquisitions bought almost all of it. Organic growth is only 5–6%.

Net revenue retention is 91–95%. The existing customer base shrinks every year. Every asset they buy is a melting ice cube.

GAAP net income: \~zero. Interest costs eat \~$370M per year. Leverage is 2.2x on a friendly EBITDA definition.

Free cash flow next 12 months: \~$670M base case. At $32B, you pay 48x FCF. A 2.1% yield.

Constellation Software is the best serial acquirer ever. It trades at 30–35x FCF. It has 25 years of proof, no net debt, and sticky B2B software. $BSP trades above that multiple with 3 years of audited history and shitty consumer apps like evernote LOL.

The math at $52: FCF must grow 25% per year for 7 years, and the exit multiple must stay at 20x. That gives you a 10% return. Perfect execution = a market return. One bad quarter = a 30%+ drop.

The IPO priced at $29 six weeks ago. That valued the company at $18B. Nothing fundamental changed since then. The stock just doubled.

The stock right now has low float and is experiencing a short s q u e e z e e . There is more shares coming in November as restricted period expires 48 hours after the second quarterly earnings release, provided at least 125 days have elapsed — i.e. on or after roughly November 2, 2026.

**318,510,767** ordinary shares will become available on November 3 to dump on retail.

**Trade**

I have 21k in Cctober 16 55 puts right now I entered today when $BSP was around 55.  I chose October because I believe the unlock news will be front run way before the actual date ( see Spacex pattern last week ). If this shitco gets upwards of 70-80+ I'm going to double my puts.

There is just no way this collection of price gouging shitty software is worth this price.

Ideas

u/CompetitiveAd8610 Reddit r/wallstreetbets

$BSP trades at ~48x forward FCF, has ~zero GAAP net income, ~$370M annual interest costs, 5–6% organic growth, and 91–95% net revenue retention. 318.5M shares unlock on/around November 3; low float and short squeeze have inflated the price far above fundamental value, creating a time-sensitive short setup. Short the overvalued roll-up via Oct puts; valuation requires perfect execution, and the lock-up overhang should trigger re-rating. Short squeeze continues; IPO momentum persists; unlock timing is approximate; consumer software brands may stabilize organic decline.

Summary

▶ Full Post Text

Ideas

More from Reddit — r/wallstreetbets