Salesforce / CRM is undervalued. LONG

u/spyapple · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · 2026년 8월 8일, 08:48 · ⬆ 15 포인트 · 💬 35 개 댓글  | Reddit에서 보기 ↗
AI 요약
=== SUMMARY === - Author argues Salesforce (CRM) is undervalued at ~$190 despite strong revenue growth, FCF, and buyback program. - Thesis relies on SEC filings: FY2026 revenue $41.5B, net income $7.46B, FCF $15B, and a simple DCF implying ~$505/share. - Quality assessment: Fairly well-researched DD with real filings and valuation math, but DCF assumptions are optimistic and the post ignores potential growth deceleration/margin pressures. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === CRM - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/spyapple Thesis: 1. THE FACT: CRM generated $41.5B revenue, $7.5B net income, $15B OCF, and $6.6B Q1 FCF with a $50B buyback. 2. THE BRIDGE: At ~$190, the stock trades near historical low multiples despite 78% gross margins and strong cash conversion. 3. THE VERDICT: Long CRM for potential re-rating and compounding cash flows; author sees 165%+ upside. 4. RISKS: Slower growth, lower-than-guided revenue, DCF terminal multiple too high, and macro/multiple compression. Timeframe: long-term Key Points: - CRM trades ~190, mcap ~158B - Annual FCF ~15B, Q1 FCF 6.6B - Author DCF target ~505/share - 50B buyback supports downside - Risk: 10% growth assumption may be aggressive
점수 15
댓글 35
추천 % 82%
전체 게시글 텍스트
아이디어
u/spyapple Reddit r/ValueInvesting
CRM은 415억 달러의 매출, 75억 달러의 순이익, 150억 달러의 영업현금흐름, 1분기 잉여현금흐름 66억 달러를 기록했고, 500억 달러 규모의 자사주 매입을 발표했습니다. 약 190달러에서 주가는 78%의 매출총이익률과 강한 현금 전환 능력에도 불구하고 역사적 저배수 부근에서 거래되고 있습니다. 잠재적인 재평가와 현금흐름의 복리 효과를 기대하며 CRM을 롱으로 추천합니다. 작성자는 165%+의 상승 여력을 봅니다. 느린 성장, 가이던스 대비 낮은 매출, DCF 최종가치 배수가 너무 높음, 거시경제 및 멀티플 압축.
더 보기 Reddit — r/ValueInvesting

This Reddit post, published August 08, 2026, features u/spyapple discussing CRM. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/spyapple  · Tickers: CRM