u/spyapple ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· 2026년 8월 8일, 08:48
· ⬆ 15 포인트
· 💬 35 개 댓글
| Reddit에서 보기 ↗
AI 요약
=== SUMMARY ===
- Author argues Salesforce (CRM) is undervalued at ~$190 despite strong revenue growth, FCF, and buyback program.
- Thesis relies on SEC filings: FY2026 revenue $41.5B, net income $7.46B, FCF $15B, and a simple DCF implying ~$505/share.
- Quality assessment: Fairly well-researched DD with real filings and valuation math, but DCF assumptions are optimistic and the post ignores potential growth deceleration/margin pressures.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
CRM - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.70
Speaker: u/spyapple
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: CRM generated $41.5B revenue, $7.5B net income, $15B OCF, and $6.6B Q1 FCF with a $50B buyback.
2. THE BRIDGE: At ~$190, the stock trades near historical low multiples despite 78% gross margins and strong cash conversion.
3. THE VERDICT: Long CRM for potential re-rating and compounding cash flows; author sees 165%+ upside.
4. RISKS: Slower growth, lower-than-guided revenue, DCF terminal multiple too high, and macro/multiple compression.
Timeframe: long-term
Key Points:
- CRM trades ~190, mcap ~158B
- Annual FCF ~15B, Q1 FCF 6.6B
- Author DCF target ~505/share
- 50B buyback supports downside
- Risk: 10% growth assumption may be aggressive
점수15
댓글35
추천 %82%
▶ 전체 게시글 텍스트
so i was looking through the latest sec filings for crm salesforce from the 10-k filed in march 2026 and the q1 10-q from may 2026 because the valuation right now is crazy cheap. stock is trading right around 190 dollars with a market cap of about 158 billion and enterprise value around 181 billion.
if you look at the numbers from their 10-k annual report for fiscal 2026 total revenue hit 41.525 billion up 10 percent and net income came in at 7.457 billion with diluted eps at 7.80 dollars. operating cash flow for the year was 15.0 billion. then in their q1 10-q they did 11.13 billion in revenue and quarterly free cash flow reached 6.6 billion. full year revenue guidance is set around 46 billion.
now lets look at the p/e ratio and ebitda. trailing p/e sits right around 20 to 22 which is historical lows for crm considering its 10 year average pe was way over 100. ebitda for trailing twelve months is roughly 12.89 billion which gives an enterprise value to ebitda ratio of about 14x. for a software giant with 78 percent gross margins that is super low.
here is the simple dcf math using actual fcf numbers. taking baseline free cash flow of 15 billion and projecting modest 10 percent annual growth for 5 years brings cash flow to about 24.15 billion by year 5. using an 8 percent discount rate wacc and a reasonable 18x terminal ebitda multiple gives a dcf implied intrinsic value of roughly 505 dollars per share. compared to the current price of 190 dollars it will perform at least 165% profit if invested now.
it could theoretically drop in the short term due to macro noise or market fluctuations but it would be temporary given the massive cash generation and $50b buyback program. anyways the fundamental risk reward ratio here is insane.
CRM은 415억 달러의 매출, 75억 달러의 순이익, 150억 달러의 영업현금흐름, 1분기 잉여현금흐름 66억 달러를 기록했고, 500억 달러 규모의 자사주 매입을 발표했습니다. 약 190달러에서 주가는 78%의 매출총이익률과 강한 현금 전환 능력에도 불구하고 역사적 저배수 부근에서 거래되고 있습니다. 잠재적인 재평가와 현금흐름의 복리 효과를 기대하며 CRM을 롱으로 추천합니다. 작성자는 165%+의 상승 여력을 봅니다. 느린 성장, 가이던스 대비 낮은 매출, DCF 최종가치 배수가 너무 높음, 거시경제 및 멀티플 압축.