Peace deal yet again. I’m not sure the markets will believe it this time

The potus canceled the strike against Iran’s energy infrastructure about an hour ago, stating that both Iran and middle eastern allies asked him to hold off. However, like the last dozen attempts at peace, he demanded that Iran open up Hormuz and give up nuclear ambitions. There has been no change in demands from either side. And nothing has happened between June’s ‘memorandum of understanding’ and now that would convince Iran to give up control of Hormuz. Given the lack of any progress towards peace over the past 2 months, I’m fairly unconvinced the market will pump materially on this development like it has following every other cease fire agreement. There is just no evidence that the latest TACO will lead to permanent peace. There have been far too many identical TACOs and fake peace deals that have ended up in renewed conflict. You can only trick the market so many times before it stops believing you. Iran will continue to attempt to toll the strait, leading America to continue strikes on Iran. And the entire time, middle eastern oil supply will continue to be choked off. These cease fires are only dragging out the conflict. The more the potus dawdles on a decision, the longer the standoff will last and the longer Hormuz will weigh on the markets. A decision needs to be made to either give up the strait or don’t.