Why did top value investors (Li Lu, Pabrai) miss the MU AI boom? Was it a mistake, and how do we avoid it?

=== SUMMARY === - Post examines why value investors like Li Lu and Pabrai sold Micron before the AI-driven HBM demand boom. - Author argues MU’s earnings calls made the multi-year profitability opportunity obvious, raising the question of whether value investors made a mistake. - Quality assessment: Thought-provoking opinion/discussion, not a formal deep-dive DD; lacks independent valuation or price analysis. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === MU - WATCH | confidence: 0.50 | sentiment: +0.30 Speaker: u/ContributionKindly13 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: MU earnings calls reportedly signaled strong and durable HBM-driven profitability for years after the AI race began. 2. THE BRIDGE: If structural demand is visible in public calls, investors can potentially capture an overlooked AI beneficiary before the market fully prices it in. 3. THE VERDICT: Post implies MU was a high-conviction missed opportunity; watch for a reasonable entry or further confirmation of sustained HBM demand. 4. RISKS: Memory is highly cyclical; AI capex could slow, HBM competition could rise, and value investors’ caution may have been prudent. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Value investors sold MU too early in cycle - HBM demand created multi-year profit visibility - Opportunity was visible on earnings calls - Cyclicality remains the main bearish counter-thesis - Consider watching for pullback or demand confirmation