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Four of the seven Mag 7 companies are going to report earnings within the next two days. Meta and Microsoft go tomorrow (Wed) after close, Apple and Amazon go Thursday.
Microsoft has become one of the worst-performing Mag 7 names this year, down more than 30% from its all-time high, plus its own capex hitting $190 billion this year and questions about whether Copilot is actually competitive against ChatGPT and Claude. Meta hiked its own capex from $125 billion to $145 billion last quarter and has been exposed to the same risk and concern. On the opposite end, Apple, which has spent almost nothing on AI infrastructure by comparison, is up 23% year-to-date.
Microsoft is expected to report $87 billion revenue (up 14.6%) and EPS jumping from $3.65 to $4.24. Meta is expected at $60.22 billion revenue and EPS of $7.14, versus $47.52 billion and the same $7.14 a year ago. Amazon is expected to hit $196 billion revenue, up 17%, with EPS moving from $1.68 to $1.82, and Amazon has a long history of beating both lines. Apple, quarterly report according to at least one analyst is expected at $108 billion revenue, up nearly 16%.
Alphabet already set the bar higher for everyone reporting after it. Since Alphabet's strong Cloud numbers still got ignored because of AI capex, the market has shown that it's willing to sell even excellent results if the spending number is high.
Apple is going to release it's earnings on Thursday. Apple has been avoiding heavy AI capex and the market considered that as smart positioning and a genuine hedge. If Apple's results show AI-light strategy is starting to cost it competitively (weak Services growth, soft device demand, anything suggesting customers want AI features Apple can't yet deliver), the narrative could reverse just as fast as it built. There's also a real cost pressure worth considering, memory chip prices spiking has reportedly pushed Apple to raise prices on MacBooks and iPads, so even the AI-light company isn't fully insulated from the AI infrastructure boom.
Does this week finally validate the heavy AI capex get punished, disciplined spending get rewarded' pattern across four simultaneous reports, or does at least one of these four break the pattern in either direction, a heavy spender getting rewarded for genuine AI proof, or Apple's restraint finally getting punished as a missed opportunity.