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Quick context for this sub: every few weeks someone here asks whether Seeking Alpha's picks are worth following. I can't answer that in general, but I can share four and a half years of data on one specific corner of it – the free "Top 10 Stocks" lists – because I've been tracking and backtesting them since 2022. No affiliation, nothing to sell, and I've deliberately kept links out of this post; sources are named in plain text.
Fair warning up front: these are quant-generated, momentum-tilted picks, not value picks. What I think IS relevant for this sub is the question I tested – holding period and turnover – because the answer turned out to be very value-flavored: patience won.
**Why I ran this.** SA publishes a Top 10 list every January, and since mid-2023 also a mid-year refresh. I wanted to know whether switching into the refreshed list every six months adds anything, or whether you're better off just holding the January picks for the full twelve months.
**A detail that matters:** there was NO mid-year list in 2022 – that edition only started in 2023. So in 2022 both approaches hold the identical portfolio (−10.4% in my run), and any fair comparison of the two schedules is really a since-2023 comparison.
# Method
Equal weight, ten names. Buy at the close on each list's publication date; on the next list's publication date, sell everything and roll into the new list. Split-adjusted price returns excluding dividends. Market holidays handled (last trading day on or before the date). Delisted or acquired names kept at their last traded price, so no survivorship bias. No costs, taxes, or slippage – real results would be lower, though the annual version at least means far fewer taxable events than the semiannual one.
# Results
The Excel-Spreadsheet wit all data and charts is here: [Download XLSX](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EA9_HzU5hsDX008qhaZolv8JjOamJc8T/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=107233958865484821871&rtpof=true&sd=true) (no Makros etc)
year by year (hold 12 months vs switch every 6):
2022 – shared year: −10.4% both
2023: +60% vs +46%
2024: +133% vs +43%
2025: +41% vs +87%
2026 -12% vs -5%
Since Jan 2023 that compounds to roughly +570% vs +368% (**\~52% vs \~41% CAGR**). Including 2022: about +620% vs +430%. The two charts attached show the full comparison.
# Takeaways
My mayor takeaway made me post here: **doing less won**. The mid-year switch paid off exactly once – 2025, and handsomely (+87% vs +41%). In 2023 and 2024, trading out of the January picks halfway through was expensive. Three overlapping years is a tiny sample and this could absolutely be luck – but it's been consistent, and it rhymes with something this sub says all the time: activity is not the same as edge.
One observation that lines up with it: every year-end, SA publishes a review grading how the January list did. I couldn't find an equivalent review for any of the mid-year editions – as far as I can tell, they're published and never revisited. Make of that what you will; in my numbers, the January lists are the ones that carried the performance.
**On benchmarks, because I want to be judged honestly:** ten names at equal weight shouldn't be compared to the cap-weighted S&P 500 alone. Since 2023: QQQ did +167% (\~32% CAGR), the S&P 500 about +95% (\~21%), and the equal-weight S&P 500 – the fairest yardstick for an equal-weight strategy – roughly +50% (\~12%). The margin is large against all three, but the equal-weight line is the one that matters.
**Versus Alpha Picks** since that's the SA product people usually ask about here: using SA's own published calendar-year figures (+58% in 2023, +49.7% in 2024, +41% in 2025, and roughly +28% YTD implied by the current since-inception number), Alpha Picks compounds to about +300% since 2023, \~48% CAGR. The free January list beat it in 2023, 2024 and 2026, and tied it in 2025 (\~40% both). Two fairness notes: Alpha Picks launched July 1, 2022 and never traded through the H1 2022 bear market, and its official figures include dividends while my rows don't – so if anything, the comparison tilts in its favor.
At first that gap surprised me; on reflection it's almost expected. Alpha Picks runs a diversified book of several dozen names; the Top 10 runs ten at 10% each. Concentration doesn't create skill – it amplifies whatever selection edge (and noise) is there, and the fair price is volatility and drawdown. I haven't built the risk-adjusted comparison yet, and I'd genuinely expect it to look less flattering.
**Caveats, so nobody reads this as a get-rich chart:** price returns without dividends, no costs or taxes, a tiny sample, one very specific market regime, and a portfolio concentrated enough that many people would have abandoned it in a drawdown. These are momentum-style picks, not value picks – what I'm offering this sub is the turnover finding and the benchmark discipline, not a stock tip.
# What I'm curious about
Who does similar high-concentration backtests, not only with SA products? Let's chat.