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# General Update
In the [last update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1scrpi5/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/), I marked a predictable market bottom as I went into bonds being up nearly $500k YTD. As the market rallied (along with yields falling), I did end up selling my bonds and playing the market a bit more. The result? Hitting a YTD gain above $1M that I'll go over later in the numbers section. This update was initially supposed to now be a "the end" update with my plans but things might be extended as I did a trade on Friday.
This point sadly isn't an ATH with my 3 year chart in Fidelity accounts looking as follows:
[The $377k is from $MU ruining my portfolio in the past. The second move down bring from $UNH. Hit an ATH chasing \\"retire today\\" money, gave some back, and now have leveled out. I realize my performance is more luck as I've been lucky to have avoided a major mistake this year.](https://preview.redd.it/j2802v1ucbfh1.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=725a339e29691ff227d761b872161b84681859f6)
I won't cover the Iran war in this update as I have no clue what is going to happen there. There is a Daily Show segment about it now being about a Stargate that makes about as much sense as anything else: [https://youtu.be/vey4Rnid1QU](https://youtu.be/vey4Rnid1QU) . I assume some type of resolution will eventually happen with it one day.
In this update, I'll go over the AI trade, my current trades, my portfolio performance, and some concluding thoughts.
# The AI Trade
**The Bear Side**
Last time I brought up [Ed Zitron](https://www.wheresyoured.at/) who has continued his crusade against the viability of AI spend and has become more mainstream these days. However, his arguments have gotten very doomerism as of late and isn't something I think is worth going over due to the mixture of things one could agree or disagree with. Still great research but way too overconfident that everything is about to crash.
I think it is easier to look at things from a broader macro viewpoint and I'll reference Bob Elliott's comment for this: [https://bsky.app/profile/bobeunlimited.bsky.social/post/3mpqtendsud2v](https://bsky.app/profile/bobeunlimited.bsky.social/post/3mpqtendsud2v)
>In order to get a reasonable IRR on 5tln in US AI-related CAPEX planned by 2030, total revenues on that capex need to get to a 3-4tln annualized run rate.
4tln in revenue / 160mln US workers = $25,000 per employee.
This type of view simplifies things as we know the investment going in and gives us something to base what money needs to be generated to sustain that investment. It doesn't matter if AI tokens get cheaper, which model wins, which company wins, or what exact hardware stack is being used. How goes the effort to get companies to pay that much?
* TSLA puts a $200 weekly cap on each employees AI spend (totaling $10,400 maximum per year). \[[source](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/tesla-caps-staff-ai-spending-162150424.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/tesla-caps-staff-ai-spending-162150424.html)\]
* WSJ article today titled "Corporate America Has Suddenly Decided to Stop Blowing Money on AI". \[[source](https://www.wsj.com/business/china-us-ai-model-costs-53a12e96)\]
* There are several more articles recently like \[[this one](https://prospect.org/2026/07/08/great-ai-repricing-isnt-going-well/)\] about companies pushing back against thier AI spend.
It is worth noting that these cases are of knowledge workers that tend to already have higher costs associated with their employment. Getting frontline workers to anything close to that $25k average? Insanity. Corporate budgets just don't have the room for their existing human employee costs + that level of AI spend.
One could argue that I've made a mistake in modeling this "per employee" as efficiency gains means a company could lay people off and use that savings to pay for that $25k average. Only that leads to Citrini's bearish scenario written back in February \[[here](https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic)\] about how that unemployment increase leads to a recession. Over time, the economy likely would adapt with new jobs brought about by AI but the short term effects of this would initially be negative.
I've simplified much here but my personal conclusion is that current AI capex won't make a return on investment. Hyperscalers deserve to be sold off short term as money looks for what will give that return short term. Those looking for them to rally short term are likely to be disappointed. BUT this doesn't mean I expect hyperscalers to stop their spend or that their existing spend is incorrect. This is due to...
**The Bull Side**
The bear side focuses on the return on investment for capex that phases out within 6 years. It focuses on how companies don't magically have $25,000 extra per employee. It ignores:
* That companies will spend some amount of money for AI productivity gains. This might be $10k for developers, $5k for other knowledge workers, and $50 for frontline workers. Or something like that. So it isn't a question of whether it would be used but rather getting it cheap enough that naturally will happen over time as hardware becomes more powerful.
* That becoming a "platform winner" means decades of future profit. The previous capex might have failed to produce a return. But the capex 10 years from now able to run models at 1/10000 the price after that old hardware is decomissioned? Great margins.
This is what I think many bears miss in their analysis. People are using AI - the debate is about the cost of it. Company capex today probably can't make a reasonable return - but the is only valuing that spend based on the 4-6 year lifetime of that hardware. Hyperscalers aren't going to stop because that longer term value of being one of 1-3 eventual "AI winners" would lead to a very large market and at that point they would have such a head start that others would be unable to challenge them.
To put this another way: I doubt the initial servers Amazon bought for AWS ever ended up making them a profit. But establishing them as the #1 Cloud provider ended up being more valuable than that wasteful spending that never made a return initially.
It is true that AI expendature is at a scale far beyond what has been done before to try to lock in a future market. It is also true that some companies will fail to be one of the "1-3" that dominate the new market. But it is unlikely the current front runners will bow out in the near term giving up that market as it will take time for the "winners" to be established. This is why I don't view it as illogical - especially as AI models became somewhat useful this year from their advancements.
So hyperscaler stocks take a hit short term as they go FCF negative and one shouldn't expect investors to restore their high market multiples for some time. Despite the stock weakness, I can see why there remains a focus of accepting the loss short term for the potential eventual market winner gains. This also means that there won't be enough pie for everyone in the end so some of these will be losers but impossible to know who those will be yet.
**The Memory Trade**
Memory stocks have been in a strong decline as of late despite recent strong earnings. There are two bearish pieces of news that could be driving things beyond war concerns and profit taking:
* A new WSJ article of Apple lobbying the White House to use Chinese made chips again. \[[Source](https://x.com/jukan05/status/2080821984385278397)\]
* Companies in China have started to reject DRAM price increases. This has caused Xiaomi to increase the smartphone shipment target as they expect memory prices to fall from the resistance. \[[Source](https://x.com/jukan05/status/2079397441947009172)\]
However, outside of that, news has been bullish and reinforces that Memory hasn't topped yet. These would be:
* DRAM unit prices have continued to go parabolic based on the Korea Customs Service. \[[Source](https://x.com/jukan05/status/2079392380759965721)\]
* Two recent research notes concluded prices for Q3 being above consensus.
* Overall, our global forecast for 3Q DRAM ASP, up 21% QoQ, is consistent with what we learned from channel check. This is more optimistic than TrendForceβs current assumptions of a 13-18% QoQ rise in 3Q conventional DRAM, or only 8-13% including HBM. \[[Source](https://x.com/jukan05/status/2078646973905998103)\]
* We completed our weekly channel checks today, and found that more Tier 2 OEMs and module makers agreed to pay 15-20% higher PC DRAM contract prices for July vs June. This implies a 30-40% QoQ increase that exceeds consensus. \[[Source](https://x.com/markflowchatter/status/2080673262573371476)\]
* China supply isn't cheaper yet even if approved as Apple is seeking. While they could eventually grow supply to flood the market, short term their involvement won't have an impact.
* "CXMT Evicted Huawei-Linked Engineers From Its R&D Facility" (Huawei was pushing back against their price increase). \[[source](https://wccftech.com/cxmt-removed-huawei-linked-engineers-from-its-facility-as-it-begins-flexing-its-power/)\]
* "Chinaβs CXMT Now Charges More Than Samsung For DRAM As Memory Demand Skyrockets" \[[Source](https://wccftech.com/china-cxmt-charges-more-than-samsung-for-dram-as-memory-demand-skyrockets/)\]
* There was an article today that SK Hynix would announce major chip deals this weekend. \[[Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/samsung-sk-hynix-announce-major-125329415.html)\]
* This so far appears to be a $500B $NVDA / SK Hynix deal: [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/25/nvidia-locks-down-memory-from-sk-hynix-as-part-of-500-billion-ai-deal.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/25/nvidia-locks-down-memory-from-sk-hynix-as-part-of-500-billion-ai-deal.html)
* Also reports of an $AVGO and Samsung MOU deal. Plus one for Anthropic signing a supply agreement with Samsung and SK Hynix.
As someone who had been burned on Micron around a year ago, I'm used to the memory trade volatility and am unsurprised to see the current selloff. Despite the selloff, their doesn't appear to be weakness in demand or an actual threat to their pricing power yet.
# Current Trades / Plans
**Basics**
From my opening chart, having given some gains back and then recovered much of it, I was focused on setting up for retirement. At my peak, I was at about $3.6M (removing estimated taxes) and am currently at about $3.4M (removing estimated taxes). This would work with the 4% rule with common advice being to invest in the S&P500 - but I'm not a fan of that right now. Many bears like [Andy Constan](https://x.com/dampedspring) and [Cem Karsan](https://x.com/jam_croissant) will point out how crazy stock valuations are. Bob Elliott shows how future earnings expectations are at historical levels \[[source](https://bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/extraordinary-expectations)\]. It just doesn't feel like an ideal entry for a long term position as the risk just feels elevated right now.
By comparison, 30 year TIPs bond yields are at basically a 25 year high \[[Source](https://bsky.app/profile/bobeunlimited.bsky.social/post/3mrama6odve2d)\]:
[These give CPI inflation + that listed yield.](https://preview.redd.it/blkwov0kfbfh1.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=9373024038fd09f02e2fbc2a2ac8c1176f7070c7)
So my retirement account? All-in on 30 year TIPs bonds that guarantee inflation + 2.82% from when I bought them. As yield comes in from those, I can dollar cost average into $VOO that eliminates a bad sequence of market returns.
For my taxable accounts, TIPs aren't feasible as one gets taxed from the bond value being adjusted for inflation. Thus that is in 20 year bonds yielding 5% that maximizes income generation. This has obvious inflation risk and thus there are two scenarios that could play out:
* Inflation / Yields remain elevated as many now expect. In this case, I work a few more years to compensate and DCA into $VOO for taxable.
* Inflation falls / Yields fall that reduces short term compount inflation hitting me. It also allows me to monetize some of the bonds into a starter $VOO position. I can then look to retire sometime next year.
From what I can tell, the math all works on this considering I don't have children to worry about. Perhaps someone else can point out why this is a bad plan? It seems it minimize risk without much actual cost.
**The Trade**
Despite being in this position, I did end up making a trade that could give hope to anyone rooting for me to blow up my account yet. While I have these bonds, one can still sell CSPs (Cash Secured Puts) in one's taxable account that has margin enabled. Doing this doesn't mean one is using margin. Instead, one earns interest on the cash received from the sold CSPs while they are open. (Of course, should it turn into stock, one would either need to sell the stocks or bonds to avoid the margin fees then).
Given the memory selloff against a backdrop of continued positive news, I decided to sell CSPs on them. This is primarily:
* $DRAM August 7th 45p for $1.01 each.
* $SKHY August 7th 130p for $4.91 each.
If these fall the over 15% further required to be ITM, I'd likely consider holding at least some of them as a better bet than bonds to hold into their Q3 earnings. Meanwhile, if the sector bounces, it is another \~2.5% of cash for my taxable accounts.
Had I already retired, I wouldn't take this risk, but I haven't done so yet to make it money I absolutely can't lose. It also doesn't apply to my retirement accounts so I'm far from "all-in" on this trade. I wasn't planning on this trade but the selloff on the overall positive earnings path news made it appealing . Hopefully it works out for me trying to pick up these pennies that does further improve retirement math.
# Current Realized Gains
**Fidelity (Taxable)**
* Realized YTD gain of $792,854. Total account value: $1,670,509.16.
[Taken from Active Fidelity Pro. Unrealized mostly from the 20 years bonds being underwater.](https://preview.redd.it/zasp1guglbfh1.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=6719de1c453c3f0ebdbe06c1f645eb3f450d5dea)
**Fidelity (IRA)**
* Realized YTD gain of $70,457. Total account value: $127,811.37
[Taken from Active Fidelity Pro. Unrealized from 30 year TIPs being underwater.](https://preview.redd.it/tload12wlbfh1.png?width=394&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b627f0d888afff61e3d83fcae00ce578ddd734c)
**Fidelity (401k - Usually Not Included and Excluded From Totals)**
* Realized YTD gain of $263,625. Total account value: $1,105,960.84.
[Taken from Active Fidelity Pro. Unrealized from 30 year TIPs being underwater.](https://preview.redd.it/l7qax369mbfh1.png?width=402&format=png&auto=webp&s=f692f50fbfcf4546647ddaae0a5ee7a44da39628)
**IBKR (Interactive Brokers)**
* Realized YTD gain of $373,591.90. Total account value: $811.999.49.
[Taken from Portfolio Analyst. Total is the \\"Net Asset Change\\" change value minus the \\"Net Deposits\\" amount.](https://preview.redd.it/mvqctalmmbfh1.png?width=417&format=png&auto=webp&s=068f36409b14b7e23259302130d4d43c3f845473)
**Overall Totals (excluding 401k)**
* YTD Gain ofΒ **1,236,902.90**
* 2025 Total Gain ofΒ **943,502.45**
* 2024 Total Loss:Β **-$249,168.84**
* 2023 Total Gains:Β **$416,565.21**
* 2022 Total Gains:Β **$173,065.52**
* 2021 Total Gains:Β **$205,242.19**
* ~~-------------------------------------~~
* Gains since trading:Β **$2,726,109.43**
# Conclusions
Things are hopefully getting to a true end in this series and I've mostly written this update so those that followed me these last 5 years will be able to see how things are ending up. I'm more focused on reducing risk and have moved on from the day of things like call options. I'm close to being able to retire from what I can tell and have given up on "retiring today" over a focus on "retire soon". I've gotten lucky and I do realize that as I've often stressed in these updates.
The danger is always getting too greedy as the next trade can always end in disaster. There was a trader who made $3 million from $RKLB that had articles written about them back on June 13th: [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/star-trek-nerd-put-savings-153000511.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/star-trek-nerd-put-savings-153000511.html) . 6 weeks later? He sadly gambled it away on short dated options as the stock sold off: [https://x.com/JacobKeeton20/status/2080699490324173236](https://x.com/JacobKeeton20/status/2080699490324173236) . I feel terrible for him and it could easily have been me.
So no attempt to do one more big bet to really juice my numbers or attempt to hit something like $10M. Small bets and a focus on safety for me. If I do eventually pull the retirement cord, then following the safest path only over any attempt to outperform.
I might do one more update on where things stand towards the end of the year to close up the 2026 numbers. I still have my account onΒ [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/bluewolf1983.bsky.social)Β for sporadic random updates otherwise if anyone feels inclined to follow me there. Feel free to comment to correct me if you disagree with anything I've written as I'm always open to reconsidering my current thinking. As always, these are just my personal opinions on what I'm doing with my portfolio. That's all I have time to write so take care!