Reddit threatening to cut off Google AI is extremely bullish for $RDDT

=== SUMMARY === - The post argues that Reddit threatening to cut off its data-licensing deal with Google is bullish for $RDDT because Google cannot afford to lose Reddit’s content for search and AI training. - Author claims Google will likely pay $1bn/year (vs current $60m) to renew, which would add +50% to Reddit’s 2025 total revenue. - Quality assessment: Speculation with a strong directional thesis, but lacks concrete data on negotiation status or Google’s alternatives. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/asianlongdong Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Google’s own AI states Search relies heavily on Reddit; Google only pays $60m/year while its quarterly capex is $45bn. 2. THE BRIDGE: Any stand-off threatens Google’s AI training and search quality, forcing Google to pay a much higher renewal fee. 3. THE VERDICT: Reddit’s revenue could surge +50% from a renegotiated deal, making current market punishment an overreaction. 4. RISKS: Google may develop alternatives, hide Reddit results, or walk away; negotiation could fail or take longer than expected. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Google’s dependency on Reddit is high - Current $60m fee is tiny vs Google capex - $1bn renewal would transform RDDT revenue - Negotiation risk cuts both ways - Watch for official deal announcements === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The community largely pushes back, warning that threatening a giant like Google is risky and could backfire if Google works to cut Reddit out or hides Reddit search results. One top comment calls it a “cope” while another sees it as a standard negotiation tactic — the post’s bullish thesis is not widely endorsed.