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WOTC parent Hasbro (HAS) is going to report earnings pre-market 7/21/2026. I expect a beat above expectations as MTG's growth is likely outpacing the analyist consensus views.
For those unaware, Hasbro at this point is basically a mostly deadweight traditional toys/games business, and WOTC. WOTC and magic the gathering are powering almost all the earnings growth. All the toys business has to do, is recover from the tariff shock and analysts will largely ignore any negative sentiment attached to it.
2026 sets: Magic growth is huge. I've talked with plenty of LGSs over the past few months and the trend has been that Marvel Superheroes is selling much better than anticipated which makes sense as everyone was wary of SPM trends. But MSH is doing very well, and I would say there's the possibility it de-thrones LOTR as the 2nd best selling set of all time until The Hobbit releases. Reality Fracture looks to have good sentiment online currently. Star Trek is showing that WOTC is willing to take risks like autographed cards to pull in collectors from outside the direct MTG or TCG playerbase and reach for people into more traditional trading cards like Pokemon/Topps collectors. I expect Star Trek to outperform reddit sentiment.
2027 In-universe sets: All smash hits it looks like from the social media reaction. WOTC has really zero'd in on the blend of nostalia and novelty that they need. Expect CBBs to continue to sell out immediately and everyone being big-mad that they can't buy them at 'msrp'.
2027 Universe-beyond sets: Nintendo signing is a clear signal this could be the 'set that beats Final Fantasy' that Mark Rosewater has hinted at. But there's also the potential for massive properties like WoW, SW, or Elder Scrolls, etc... that would have broad massive audiences built in.
Distribution vs. Direct Selling on Amazon: WOTC looks to have been trying to capture more of the revenue chain by direct selling more products on Amazon. This means that instead of traditional TCG distribution capturing 25-35% of the margin on a product, Amazon is only capturing 10-15% and WOTC is getting that extra chunk.
Distribution model benefits from ancillary products: Because TCG printing is limited by production speeds and facilities (much like datacenters), for every 1000 play boosters you can make, you can either produce 33.33... (repeating of course) play booster boxes, or 4-5x as many bundles, gift bundles, singleton packs, scene boxes, warehouse boxes, and beginner boxes. Likely this is a way to incentivize stores to buy up as much of the ancillary products as they can from distribution to get access to higher CBB allocation. The net result is WOTC sells more broad SKUs and isn't relying on hardcore MTG people cracking play boxes or drafting.
Positions: CBBs in FF, BRO, MSH, SPM, LOTR, $HAS Aug 80Cs, Sept 110Cs, Jan 90Cs, Mar 110Cs, Jun 110Cs, Jan 120Cs. https://imgur.com/a/k3ywvBm
Previous thread(s):
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1srvqx8/magic_the_gathering_owner_hasbro_has_earnings/
https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1r0ertm/mtg_and_dd_parent_company_hasbro_has_reports/