Is it Market Timing to Avoid S&P at P/E of 23?

solodav · 2026-07-17T02:40:58+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - Post references a Howard Marks video citing a JPM study: buying the S&P 500 at a P/E of 23 has historically produced 10-year annualized returns between +2% and -2% with no exceptions. - The author questions whether continued DCA into VOO is wise at current valuations, implicitly favoring waiting for lower P/E rather than blindly buying. - This is largely a discussion prompt rather than a fully researched DD; the author presents a single data point without broader context or personal position. Quality assessment: Speculation / noise – lacks original analysis, relies on a third-party study, and frames the question without a definitive thesis. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === SPY - AVOID | confidence: 0.40 | sentiment: -0.30 Speaker: u/solodav Thesis: 1. THE FACT: JPM study shows buying S&P at P/E 23 leads to ~0% annualized 10-year returns historically. 2. THE BRIDGE: Current S&P P/E is near 23, implying a high probability of poor long-term returns; waiting for a lower entry may improve risk/reward. 3. THE VERDICT: Avoid initiating new long positions in SPY at current levels; existing holders may consider reducing exposure or hedging. 4. RISKS: Study may not repeat (structural changes, low interest rates, earnings growth); DCA over time could still average out; timing the market often fails. Timeframe: long-term Key Points: - P/E 23 signals sub-2% 10-yr returns historically - Avoid new buys until valuation improves - Not a short, but a "wait and see" - DCA into VOO may still work long-term - Risk: market can stay irrational longer

u/solodav · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · July 17, 2026 at 02:40 · ⬆ 16 pts · 💬 48 comments | View on Reddit ↗

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Summary

Post references a Howard Marks video citing a JPM study: buying the S&P 500 at a P/E of 23 has historically produced 10-year annualized returns between +2% and -2% with no exceptions.
The author questions whether continued DCA into VOO is wise at current valuations, implicitly favoring waiting for lower P/E rather than blindly buying.
This is largely a discussion prompt rather than a fully researched DD; the author presents a single data point without broader context or personal position.

Quality assessment: Speculation / noise – lacks original analysis, relies on a third-party study, and frames the question without a definitive thesis.

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Is it Market Timing to Avoid S&amp;P at P/E of 23?

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Is it Market Timing to Avoid S&P at P/E of 23?