u/throwawayzotzot ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· July 16, 2026 at 04:23
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 26 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post discusses the author's long positions in PANW and CRWD, which have appreciated significantly, and questions whether to take profits due to excessive market cap relative to revenue.
Thesis: These cybersecurity leaders are overvalued; revenue growth is unlikely to catch up to market value, and future returns may lag the S&P 500.
Quality assessment: Speculation based on valuation multiples, not deep fundamental DD; reflects informed opinion rather than rigorous analysis.
Score15
Comments26
Upvote %79%
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Been holding CRWD and PANW since the CRWD outage few summers ago, up 200% and 100% respectively. Is this the time to take profits? I usually hold for the long haul but their market cap is way too large for how much revenue they’re bringing in. I don’t see their revenue catching up to their market value anytime soon nor expect returns beating sp500 in the coming years. Is anyone else in a similar boat? How can one justify this valuation even if they are leaders in cyber? Seems like anything can happen in this irrational market …
PANW market cap is too large relative to current revenue; author expects underperformance vs S&P 500. If valuation persists without revenue catch-up, the stock is vulnerable to multiple compression. Short PANW on valuation grounds as growth premium is unsustainable. Continued strong cybersecurity demand, AI tailwinds, or earnings beats could push prices higher.
CRWD is up 200% since the outage; valuation now stretched relative to revenue. Historical reversion in high-growth tech multiples suggests downside risk. Short CRWD as the market has overpriced future growth. Strong enterprise adoption, platform expansion, or M&A speculation could support higher valuations.
This Reddit post, published July 16, 2026,
features u/throwawayzotzot
discussing PANW, CRWD.
2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.