Semis will rebound in late July/early august

I'm fairly confident semis will rebound by mid august. I think this will be driven by earnings, and I think emphasis will be on hyperscaler capex guidance and commentary moreso than semi numbers themselves. This sell off to me is primarily driven by wavering conviction in the AI trade. I don't really want to go into a bubble vs not bubble discussion. It can be a bubble and semis can rebound. Im not suggesting it's up and to the right forever for AI or semis. I think it's extremely likely that all hyperscalers reiterate if not increase capex guidance, and signal optimism about the tech. To do otherwise would be to unwind the trade which would be catastrophic for markets. Whether the hyperscalers privately have conviction in the tech is another question, but I think they are stuck in a vicious cycle where they will double down until there is some more significant development that forces them to change course. This will be the main catalyst heading into end of month. Google I believe reports next week, and I think the other hyperscalers report the first week of August. Semi earnings will also be positive, and guidance will be strong, but like I said, this is of secondary importance. Asml and tsmc report this week and I expect both to give a strong result which should give us an early indication of what to expect in the following weeks. The only thing that could potentially derail this rally is significant escalation in Iran, which admittedly is possible, but I think trying to predict which direction things will go there is borderline impossible.