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This is purely about next week's volatility and any remaining risk of squeeze in the near term before August. Cleaner/updated take on [this post.](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1upkhff/comment/owf57ux/?context=1&screen_view_count=2) \*Pictures were showing as OBJ for some reason - readded them\*
Key Notes:
SpaceX Anomalous Friday - Stock held the tightest range since IPO, right under $150, which was the price advertised where [shorts lose money](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-stock-falls-below-ipo-121848370.html). As once advertised at 196 million shares - but we won't know until the next Finra report, unless a squeeze manifests before then. There was only a little over 12K $150 calls, so it seems more likely to be protecting the shorts than the calls but it could be both. Now another interesting point is the Friday was the day with the highest # of shorts. Not 10 point drop Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, but Friday...
https://preview.redd.it/yj6h361wntch1.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=066cf309bbd45f91942869d10ae0956b68c0b886
[This tight of a range doesn't happen. Again, this suggests to me it was defense of $150 that successfully held.](https://preview.redd.it/qjz361wwntch1.png?width=981&format=png&auto=webp&s=a92668a0fb9358ab8bc86a4f8c605cecc2a4106c)
https://preview.redd.it/mz22h7cyntch1.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5042f179532059246b4ee596bf60fd440f0057a
After the initial drop, the stock was only allowed to hit $149.75 before being kept a dollar away from $150. I watch this stock every day. This was not normal.
Borrowable Shares - No matter what data you have access to, you can logically conclude that the # of borrowable shares has gone down overall. Index buys, calls, already held shorts, etc. Now maybe Friday was the day that if a short was going to happen it could have happened, but there is still contention. July 12th is when margin trading restrictions end. Meaning come Monday morning - at least some retail will have access to margin trade SpaceX. Whether its to short or buy, everyone's fighting over the same pool of shares. Which means there will be less of them.
The Timing of the Fall and IPO Flipper Restriction's Unlock - Something like 80 million shares give or take get released from IPO flipper restrictions on Monday (Fidelity already released, so it's the remaining brokers, assuming 100 mil was given to retail and Fidelity got 20% which was released after 15 days). Logically, with the price being $145 and the narrative of the additional shares coming in August, this would induce a significant # of people to take profits and run. Further benefiting the shorts and dropping the price due to the fear of the falling price and the pending August unlocks. Sure, plenty may hold and the dip may only be temporary, but I wouldn't be surprised if plenty want to GTFO as soon as the market opens. Now you could argue that Monday is why there was so much short activity on Friday, but why stop the price from reaching $150. Would the shorts make more money the higher price they continue to short the stock at? IMO - there was clear defensive play from letting the price get to $150 again. Whatever the reason, protect the calls, protect the shorts, kill momentum, stop the squeeze, encourage sell off on Monday? Don't know, but it was very odd behavior for a stock I watch obsessively. It's even possible that because of the IPO flipper restricted shares, we were in squeeze range with no catalyst.
Starship Launch - If there is enough excitement around the starship launch and even more so if it's successful, the stock could climb. If it climbs higher than $150 again, and limits the time for shorts to recover, this could add additional pressure on shorts that have not closed.
CTB - The cost to borrow shares has significantly increased from the [6th to the 10th](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spacex/cost-to-borrow/). Some reports show nearly double the rate. Other notes suggest some borrows were at 10x+ the rate.
https://preview.redd.it/bip91iazntch1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a75cf8ecff3dbddf2e73f711f4f79bdc52b7b20
As you can see this states short supply increased, but that just means some shares were returned. Friday's CTB was still nearly double Monday's.
July 15th - Shorts data starts accumulating, due by Friday. Published by the week of the 19th. The truth will be revealed on how badly the stock was shorted.
What does this all mean? To me it suggests there is still danger to shorts. However, we don't know many there truly are. The assumption the # is higher, makes the defensive position to $150 make more sense. However, do they think that Monday is going to crush it to $135 and it just stays there until August? They wanted to suck up as much remaining shares as they could before retail could access them? But remember, some shorts were returned and the CTB came down...So there's definitely shares available. I believe their goal is to still hold the shorts to the August unlock as far under $150 as possible. It is the most logical point in which the price could drop below $135, because assumedly most of those holders didn't pay $135 for them or anywhere close to it. However, it might still be a stretch for the current # of shorts to make it there.
\#'s update
Tradeable Shares - **638.9 million shares**
Shorted Shares - We won't know officially until the next FINRA report, but aside from the July 2nd report from Ortex claiming 196 at that time. It could be as low was 30 mill (highly doubt) or as high as 266 million or more. **Let's assume 266.24 is accurate.**
https://preview.redd.it/ves43oj1otch1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&s=f62af94d8c74502e5775c7a467d4149cbc2cbf20
Calls - **150-160 million**
[Obviously, there can be uncovered calls, but a large # of executes is a pretty significant # of shares that need to move hands.](https://preview.redd.it/zg3eqxq2otch1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f7a8c35eba8d74fcc8b65c36c385325355cf280)
ETFs - **50+ Million**
**638.9 million - 266.24 - 150 - 50 = 172. 66**
Which matches my earlier estimate of share remaining from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1upkhff/comment/owf57ux/?context=1&screen_view_count=2). Just napkin math, could be more could be less. However, the previous math got to that # included IPO flipper restricted shares.
The median for normal trading hours is somewhere between 60 - 90 million shares. This already accounts for some shares trading hands multiple times. So, if the # of available shares is reduced even further to daily trading volume, or price recovers, this could induce some pressure to cover. Obviously, all the shorts can't recover at once or it would balloon the price. They may even help stabilize the price trying to recover bit by bit while its under $150, but the clear goal is August. The most realistic answer is probably going closer to $135 before we touch $150 again, but there's a chance to recover. Maybe both happen this week.
I think a lot depends on how many IPO shares sell off from the flipper restriction removal, the more of them that are not lendable or sold off, the tighter the supply. As well as the inverse being true. Then we would still need catalyst like a successful Starship launch and catch to break the $150 barrier probably. Again,, this is just playing a flat #. Some likely already sold early or are even sitting in margin accounts. Don't know. Fun week ahead. Friday likely the next battle ground arena for the stars to align.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE OR A CALL TO ACTION. JUST INFORMATION ON A TOPIC I FIND VERY INTERESTING. DO WHATEVER IS BEST FOR YOU. I DID NOT USE AI FOR ALL MY RESEARCH BUT IT DID HELP SUMMARIZE AND GIVE VISUAL REFERENCE/CITATION FOR THIS POST. THESE ARE SPECULATIVE #'S AND I DO NOT CLAIM ACCURACY. JUST THEORY. WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN. GOOD LUCK. EXPECT VOLATILITY. THIS IS FOCUSED ON THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEK ONLY (FINRA #'s PUBLISHED).