Software hits just keep on mounting

Trenbolone-Papi2 · 2026-07-10T11:54:30+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The author cites two bearish Bloomberg stories: Starbucks dumping IBM/Oracle for in-house software, and AI agent startup Lyzr raising capital to replace Salesforce-like tools. - Thesis: Software investing is dangerous due to enterprise insourcing and AI disruption; no near-term catalysts to reverse the sector's decline. - Quality assessment: Speculation based on isolated anecdotes, lacking deep financial data or valuation analysis; more noise than rigorous DD. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === IBM - SHORT | confidence: 0.45 | sentiment: -0.40 Speaker: u/Trenbolone-Papi2 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Starbucks is switching from IBM to custom in‑house software. 2. THE BRIDGE: This signals erosion of enterprise loyalty to legacy vendors. 3. THE VERDICT: Bearish on IBM’s recurring software/service revenue stream. 4. RISKS: Starbucks’ in‑house project may fail (per top comments), keeping IBM contracts intact. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Starbucks is a high‑profile defector example. - Long‑time IBM customers may re‑evaluate. ORCL - SHORT | confidence: 0.45 | sentiment: -0.40 Speaker: u/Trenbolone-Papi2 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Same Bloomberg article reports Starbucks dropping Oracle. 2. THE BRIDGE: Oracle’s database/ERP suite faces similar insourcing risk. 3. THE VERDICT: Oracle vulnerable to customer‑built alternatives and AI disruption. 4. RISKS: Oracle’s cloud transition may offset legacy losses; comments question feasibility of in‑house builds. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Large‑scale insourcing trend threatens Oracle. - AI agent competition adds long‑term pressure. CRM - SHORT | confidence: 0.40 | sentiment: -0.50 Speaker: u/Trenbolone-Papi2 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Lyzr raises money to build AI agents that replace Salesforce‑like tools. 2. THE BRIDGE: Agentic AI threatens CRM’s core sales automation moat. 3. THE VERDICT: Salesforce faces obsolescence risk from specialized AI agents. 4. RISKS: Enterprise switching costs are high; ane

u/Trenbolone-Papi2 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · July 10, 2026 at 11:54 · ⬆ 19 pts · 💬 76 comments | View on Reddit ↗

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Summary

The author cites two bearish Bloomberg stories: Starbucks dumping IBM/Oracle for in-house software, and AI agent startup Lyzr raising capital to replace Salesforce-like tools.
Thesis: Software investing is dangerous due to enterprise insourcing and AI disruption; no near-term catalysts to reverse the sector's decline.
Quality assessment: Speculation based on isolated anecdotes, lacking deep financial data or valuation analysis; more noise than rigorous DD.

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