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Hello fellow degenerates! I’ve been a long time lurker and have loved watching your plays over the years. You’ve brought me a lot of laughs and helped me lose a lot of money. Hopefully I can return the favor with this DD.
I present to you Nike. Nike is an athletics behemoth that rapidly became a cornerstone of American culture and fashion. From 1986 to 2019, Nike saw incredible growth from $900M in revenue to over $40B.
Today, Nike is in a bit of a rut. Revenues have declined year over year for the last two years. [From their earnings call](https://s1.q4cdn.com/806093406/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/NIKE-Inc-Q4FY26-OFFICIAL-Transcript_-FINAL.pdf), executives don’t really see things getting better for the next 2 quarters. Things look bleak, sales in China are down, consumer spending has slowed, and their Nike sportswear and Jordan streetwear will operate at a loss this year. They’re in desperate need of a hero to turn things around.
https://preview.redd.it/vx76xy3ot7ch1.png?width=200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c77d65610d496d3dcaf28e6f3bc9cd8e2469474
Enter LeBron James, the mastermind behind Taco Tuesday™ and father of NBA player Bronny James. LeBron is the oldest man at his job and his performance has started to slip. There are rumors that this may very well be his last season in the league. His status as the greatest basketball player ever is debatable, and we’re not gonna get into that today. But what we will look at is jersey sales. [LeBron has recently decided that he will not return to the Tune Squad](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7302889/2026/06/30/lebron-james-returns-leaving-lakers-nba/), which means he will be in need of a new jersey. Now all LeFans will need to buy a new jersey to add to their collection. LeBron has consistently been in the top 3 of individual player jersey sales.
From 2020 Season (from NBA.com):
https://preview.redd.it/utik6y3ot7ch1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=32007d8e274f254f79e09e75a97f21d670836ec9
From 2025 Season:
https://preview.redd.it/8c88ga4ot7ch1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=88edd11632af1d466bf08563d140e0a63f15ec1b
LeBron is one of Nike’s greatest success stories, being with the brand since 2003. This will be LeBron’s 4th time changing teams. We all know that past performance is the best indicator of future results, so let’s dive in.
My initial thought was that the day LeBron announced his new team would lead to a significant jump in NKE stock. There was absolutely no evidence of this but I already bought a small amount of lotto calls for this event so I guess I’m rolling with it. Instead we’re looking at data over a longer timeframe and some other key events.
Entering the league: LeBron was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the summer of 2003. For the quarter ending September of 2003, [Nike had revenues of $3B, above their September 2002 quarter revenue of $2.8B](https://discountingcashflows.com/company/NKE/earnings/) (7% increase). NKE stock was trading at $6.7 (July 2003) and grew to $7.6 by the end of September, a 13% rise. The stock price reached $9.8 by the end of the season in April, a 46% rise. (all historical stock data from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAARFcVDG7E4RBSYwbq2NvFTg_ihsM60K3-56-Kxyajm3tPRj5PaFVoerfOL4dRK-Onj-oLFOORXJaXQgF6YMx6qxxwu7cMoHbKtrfGTYepBYjR5_cMVyC_2ZV7vEbup_jA9JdB8ayK4_N9dOvlulwphemxGAeN8Qdvwqx0Ezz__I))
Cleveland to Miami (The Decision): in the summer of 2010, LeBron announced he was taking his talents to South Beach. For the quarter ending September of 2010, [Nike had revenues of $5.17B, above their September 2009 quarter revenue of $4.8B](https://discountingcashflows.com/company/NKE/earnings/) (7.7% increase). NKE stock was trading at $17 (start of July 2010), growing to $20 by the end of September, a 21% increase. The stock peaked mid season around $22 dollars in March, a 29% rise.
Return to Cleveland: in the summer of 2014, LeBron announced he was returning to Cleveland to bring the city whose economy was based on him their first championship in decades. For the quarter ending September of 2014, [Nike had revenues of $7.98B, above their September 2013 quarter revenue of $7B](https://discountingcashflows.com/company/NKE/earnings/) (14% increase). NKE stock was trading at $39 (start of July 2014), and grew to $44.6 by the end of September (10% increase) and continuing to grow throughout the season to a price of $50 by season end, a 28% increase.
Cleveland to LA: in the summer of 2018, LeBron announced he was going to the LA Lakers to fulfill his lifelong dream of starring in Space Jam 2. For the quarter ending September of 2018, [Nike had revenues of $9.9B, above their September 2017 quarter revenue of $9.1B](https://discountingcashflows.com/company/NKE/earnings/) (8.7% increase). NKE stock was trading at $79 (start of July 2018), and grew to $85 by the end of September (7% increase). The stock was much more turbulent this year but ended up peaking at $90 during the playoffs in April (14% increase).
GOAT Comparison: There is a good chance that this year could be LeBron’s final year in the NBA, based on speculation from various NBA pundits and news coming out of LeBron’s camp. So, let’s look at Michael Jordan’s retirement comeback with the Wizards in 2001-2002. Jordan announced his return on 9/25/2001, when Nike was trading at $5.80. Nike peaked at $8 per share in March 2002, a 38% increase. The revenues are a little strange here, because Jordan didn’t sign in the summer like typical NBA free agents, so they declined year over year.
So there it is. Looking at the revenue, we had average revenue increases of 9% over the previous summer quarter. In September 2025, Nike had revenues of $11.7 Billion, and a 9% increase would give us $12.7B, significantly higher than their guidance of $11.4B. Are we really going to sell $1.3 BILLION worth of LeBron jerseys over the next two months? Lol probably not. But historically the summer quarter has been Nike’s strongest and had some good beats over the years.
On the stock price side, by September, we had an average increase of 12% in Nike stock. We could expect a peak increase somewhere midseason (6-9 months away) of 35%. If we assume that our current LeBron event is similar, that would put us at $48 by September and $58 between December-April.
https://preview.redd.it/bkpl1z3ot7ch1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e3d082cd668684592de7aff866e81bdadd8d955
When I had my grand delusion that LeBron might save Nike, I was hoping for better returns than 35% over 9 months. Honestly, these don’t really get it up for me. So let’s dream bigger. Maybe LeBron himself isn’t the key, but the NBA as a whole.
There have been a lot of wild moves this NBA offseason. Many stars will play for a new team next year. These stars, including Giannis, Paul George, Kawhi, Ja Morant, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, and LaMelo Ball, have all ranked within the top 15 of jersey sales posted by the NBA multiple times. These stars will command more jersey sales throughout the year. As of 2017, guess who is the official distributor of ALL NBA jerseys? ([It’s Nike](https://www.nba.com/news/nike-signs-12-year-partnership-extension-nba-wnba-g-league)). And if this truly is LeBron’s last year, the eyes and media coverage that the NBA will get will be massive. [Viewership is already returning to highs not seen since Michael Jordan’s retirement tour 24 years ago.](https://www.nba.com/news/nba-regular-season-2025-26-most-viewers-24-years)
Yes Nike has and may continue to experience headwinds. But I think the tide is turning and I think basketball is going to make it happen. I don’t know the demographics of you degenerates, but I think there’s a reason for everyone to jump in.
[Insiders](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NKE/insider-trades/): the CEO is buying. He’s no Pelosi, but maybe you wanna follow him.
[Europoors](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7397349/2026/06/26/usmnt-jerseys-nike-world-cup/): Nike is the official sponsor of Team USA football kits. They sold out of most of their gear and the US has actually been winning. Maybe we’re finally gonna care about soccer (doubtful).
[Runners](https://s1.q4cdn.com/806093406/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/NIKE-Inc-Q4FY26-OFFICIAL-Transcript_-FINAL.pdf): Apparently Nike’s running division is growing by double digits. I was a runner and always hated their shoes, but maybe they are good now.
Boomers: Nike’s dividend has become increasingly juicy (>3% yield) with the drop in stock price.
Technical Analysis:
https://preview.redd.it/yxqkz44ot7ch1.png?width=1149&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca85999949ef62572b73f07971fd2add62a75ad1
To the asstrology crowd, fuck y’all. I don’t know what any of this means. But it’s probably gonna go up I guess.
Well that’s all folks. I don’t know exactly why, but I think Nike’s going up and getting money by any means necessary. Maybe Anthony Edwards will knock up the Greek goddess of victory herself and owe child support. That’s profit, baby. The Olympics are coming up and they’re in America too. Ozempic is making people skinnier and maybe they’ll start exercising. Take your pick and buy calls or shares or something (NFA). Just do it™.
TLDR: Nike up short term (15%-35% over 3-9 months) and on all timeframes because of LeBron’s new team + retirement tour.
Positions:
https://preview.redd.it/tfptp44ot7ch1.png?width=1106&format=png&auto=webp&s=69beb14f1d038b8160b0143499e55cb8d92c2159
20 Oct NKE $50 Calls
10 Jan NKE $50 Calls