IWM is up around 22% in the first half of 2026. Apparently that's the strongest first half since 1991 which is kinda wild to me.
What got my attention is where the gains are coming from. 16 of the top 50 Russell 2000 names this year are semiconductor related. Not the big NVDA type names, more like the little suppliers feeding the AI buildout. A few of them (AEHR, ICHR, MXL) ran up over 400%. I pulled the chart on moomoo and the small cap chip suppliers are just going vertical.
Here's the part that keeps me from going all in though. IWM is trading around 26x forward earnings, which is like a 28% premium to the S&P. And analysts have actually been cutting 2026 small cap earnings estimates, down 9% ytd while they raised the S&P 9%.
So the price is running but the fundamentals guessing game is getting worse? Feels like everyone piled into the AI supply chain trade at once.
Am I overthinking this or is 26x forward on small caps just asking for a rug pull. Anyone actually holding IWM here or picking single names?