kept hearing "monday sets the tone for the week" so i actually tested it on 16 years of NQ
u/jjd1226 ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· June 28, 2026 at 14:36
· ⬆ 21 pts
· 💬 21 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The author tested the adage "Monday sets the tone for the week" on NQ (Nasdaq-100 futures) over 16 years and found that if by Wednesday the price is on one side of Monday’s open, it predicts the weekly close direction with ~76% accuracy (out-of-sample held).
The thesis is a simple mean-reversion or momentum pattern: the Wednesday position relative to Monday’s open is a strong weekly directional signal.
Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with a clean backtest and out-of-sample validation, but no live implementation details or robustness checks (e.g., transaction costs, slippage).
16 years of NQ data show that when Wednesday’s price is above (below) Monday’s open, the weekly close is above (below) that open ~76% of the time. This statistically significant edge can be traded by entering a position on Wednesday’s close and holding until Friday’s close, with the direction determined by whether price is above or below Monday’s open. A systematic, rules-based weekly swing strategy that exploits a persistent market anomaly in Nasdaq futures, supported by a high win rate. Strategy may degrade with regime changes, ignores volatility/slippage, and assumes liquid execution. No stop-loss or risk management mentioned.