Nike at 11-Year Lows: Is This the Bottom or Does the Pain Continue?
u/Famous_Disk_7417 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 27, 2026 at 11:12
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 16 comments
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Summary
The post discusses Nike (NKE) trading at 11-year lows, down ~65% from 2022, and questions whether it's a bottom or further downside.
Author raises concerns about China recovery, dividend sustainability, North America market share loss, and impact of new products, seeking honest takes rather than presenting a clear thesis.
Quality assessment: This is a speculative discussion/opinion-gathering post, not a well-researched DD. Contains no personal position or supporting data beyond general market observations.
Score15
Comments16
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Disclaimer up front — just trying to gauge what people are actually seeing here.
The setup is wild: Nike's down \~65% since 2022, trading near 2014 levels despite still owning the strongest athletic brand globally. Management says the turnaround is real but slower than expected.
**What's got your attention (or spooked you)?**
* Is the Greater China story actually bottoming, or does it get worse?
* Is that 4% dividend yield a gift or a value trap if FCF gets worse?
* Does the North America rebuild actually matter, or is it noise while the core brand loses share?
* Are you seeing the new products (Running, Mind headgear, etc.) actually move the needle in retail?
Real question: **What would actually make you pull the trigger on this?** Earnings beat? China stabilization? Margin guidance? Or do you need to see it proven over quarters first?
Looking for honest takes — not cheerleading, not dunking. What are you seeing that the market might be missing (or obviously isn't)?