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So I run a screen across 2800 nasdaq names, returns over a few horizons, distance from 52w highs, relative volume, dispersion, that kind of stuff. mostly to keep myself honest on the macro instead of trading off headlines. been doing it daily for a while now.
this week one thing stuck out and I've been chewing on it for a couple days so figured I'd just put it here and see if anyone's seeing the same thing or can tell me why I'm wrong.
there's a clump of genomics / DNA sequencing / diagnostics names that are all going to new highs at basically the same time. not one or two flyers, more like 20-25 of them. Twist (TWST) is up 100%+ over 3 months, Maravai 98%, NeoGenomics +77, Veracyte 79, then CareDx, Natera, Guardant, and even Illumina which has been dead money for literally years is up 40. the median name in that bucket is +33% over 3mo against roughly +4% for the whole nasdaq. so it's not just two rockets dragging the average up, the actual group is moving together.
why now, and this is just my read so push back: rates have been coming down and commodities are getting wrecked, gold/oil/silver all down double digits on the month. that's a disinflation tape. and the thing about most of these genomics companies is they make no money, the whole value is terminal-value way out in the future. so when the discount rate drops they're exactly the names that rip. long-duration equity basically. that part kind of makes sense to me.
here's what's actually bugging me though, and the real reason I'm posting. almost none of it has volume behind it. price is making new highs but relative volume is sitting around 1x, sometimes under. my screen literally tags most of them "needs volume." only a couple (Maravai, Natera) have real volume confirming the move. so I honestly can't tell if I'm early, in before the crowd, which is where you want to be, or if this is just a quiet drift higher that folds the second the tape turns.
I've got a small starter in TWST and I'm watching NEO, so that's my bias, take it for what it's worth.
couple things I'm genuinely trying to figure out:
does a breakout with no volume mean anything to you, or do you just wait for the volume even if it means giving up the first leg? I go back and forth on this constantly.
and if anyone actually follows this space, is there a fundamental catalyst here I'm missing (some approval cycle, funding thing, M&A chatter?) or is it really just the rate move pulling the whole group up at once?
not advice, I'm a macro guy poking at a sector I don't know that well, which is half the reason I'm asking.