$IONR: US backed Lithium-Boron giant the market is sleeping on

What if I told you that another Lithium Americas ($LAC) type play was staring everyone in the face, but nobody was paying attention? Recall, LAC secured a $2.2B loan from the Department of Energy, and the US gov’t took an equity stake as a result. Well Ioneer ($IONR) is shaping up to do the same exact thing, but its on nobody’s radar... Let’s take a little walk down memory lane: * 2017: Rhyolite Ridge, one only two known Lithium/Boron deposits in the world, is acquired by a podunk Australian mineral exploration company, now known as Ioneer. * 2019/2020: Feasibility study places NPV of project at $1.3B. Environmentalists hold the entire project hostage over a plant called Theim’s Buckwheat. * 2021/2022: EV mania is peaking. Lithium prices hit all time highs on supply shortages. Ford and Toyota/Panasonic sign offtake agreements with Ioneer. Bureau of Land Management advances the project into the final stage of permitting. They secure a 50% JV partner, Silbanye Stillwater, with a $500M equity commitment. * 2023: Department of Energy offers conditional commitment of $700mm. But the Lithium price downfall has begun. Lithium prices fall 80%. The environmentalists press harder to kill the project. * 2024: Bureau of Land Management fully approves the project, final federal permits are issued, and environmentalists lose their battle. But the Lithium bear market persists. * 2025: The DOE closes on an UPSIZED $1B loan to Ioneer in January. But then, the existing equity partner, Silbanye-Stillwater, walks away in February due to lithium prices. **In order to draw on the DOE loan, Ioneer must have an equity partner.** In late 2025, additional reserves and a more efficient way to extract the lithium is discovered. NPV jumps from 1.3B to 2.3B. * 2026: Ioneer spends more than a year shopping the deal. And as of yesterday, they finally have an LOI. And it’s with the **Korean government and Hyundai Engineering.** [https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/1896084\/000114036126026029\/ef20076610\_ex99-1.htm](https://preview.redd.it/53jxciqd729h1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cd7b5549d09825a50b0ec000aea778a4d799fc5) This is big news. Yes, the LOI is non-binding, but they expect to formalize it into an MOU with terms in July. This has been a long time in the making, and the counterparties are serious entities. But people don’t seem to care. The investor base is downtrodden from years of anguish. Some additional points worth considering: 1. Boron, the other mineral on site at Rhyolite Ridge, was added to the USA critical minerals list in November of 2025. The entire US domestic supply essentially comes from a single source, Rio Tinto’s Borax mine in CA. Meanwhile, 90% of global reserves are locked up in Turkey. Rhyolite Ridge will diversify Boron sourcing. 2. There is a [trilateral critical minerals framework](https://www.state.gov/releases/2025/09/joint-statement-from-the-trilateral-meeting-of-the-united-states-of-america-japan-and-the-republic-of-korea-in-new-york-city) between US-Japan-Korea. This fits directly into that. 3. John Arnold, one of the greatest energy traders of all time, is the largest equity holder of Ioneer via Centaurus Capital. The guy rarely loses. I doubt he will lose this time. 4. The structure of the DOE loan is VERY similar to Lithium America’s. In that instance, the government basically extorted LAC for warrants and a small equity stake when they drew on the loan. And from there, it had the blessing of the USA and it went bonkers. **When this LOI turns into a closed deal, the US government will pull the same move.** Another item to watch will be the [Pax Silica summit](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/06/pax-silica-summit-invitation/), occurring on June 25/26 (suspiciously close to the Korean JV announcement yesterday). Pax Silica is the Dept of State’s flagship effort to “strengthen economic security through trusted technology partnerships” with one of the primary focuses listed as “deepening collaboration on critical minerals.” **Korea is a founding signatory of Pax Silica.** The Pax Silica organization itself has $250M earmarked for critical minerals extraction. The stars are finally aligning on this little Lithium miner. Rhyolite Ridge is potentially the next great American mineral resource. Fully permitted, shovel ready, just needs to iron out the details. The asset is largely de-risked. The very few people that might be paying attention are so dejected, they’re assuming this deal falls through too. But when it moves forward, we’re going to see this stock move, and move fast. **Disclosure: I am just a man inside your computer, an autist with a Bloomberg terminal** Position: SPOT... Have more spread out across a couple other accounts as well. https://preview.redd.it/zn4n1qtpa29h1.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8a9089c3943cee04c826b1ae5d819d83ca94fa5