SPY Isn't Pricing Much Movement, But Protection Is Still Expensive

At first glance, next week's SPY setup looks pretty boring. * SPY: \~$746.74 * Expected move: ±$11.50 That's a fairly quiet week by recent standards. [Asymmetric Opportunities](https://preview.redd.it/yzs4kj5th09h1.png?width=794&format=png&auto=webp&s=10160369c498ebaad290bd4e18eace0f809cf77a) Downside volatility is trading about 3.9 vol points above upside volatility, which creates a noticeably wider downside range than upside range. 1SD range: * Upside: $756.68 (+1.33%) * Downside: $733.31 (-1.80%) 2SD range: * Upside: $766.76 (+2.68%) * Downside: $720.13 (-3.56%) So while the market isn't expecting a big move, traders are still paying more for protection than for upside exposure. [Skew-adjusted distribution Model](https://preview.redd.it/zx06tifnh09h1.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=15320aa913788354f63bff5ba421d3aa01cb3e44) To me it looks like investors have become a bit more cautious after the recent volatility and are willing to spend extra on insurance. This is the normal regime, but over the last few months, calls were often priced more expensively as investors became more complacent. Curious how others are interpreting SPY skew right now. Has anyone else noticed the shift over the past couple of weeks?