Semis vs. Software & MSFT's conundrum

If I were at a hedge fund, I would make the following trade: long semis, short semis. The idea is that as AI expands, SaaSpocalypse fears come to roost and software companies will face increasing competition from vibecoded alternatives or more advanced new entrants, weighing on margins and ARR. ​ Personally I don't buy into this completely. I think letting amateurs build their own platforms trying to compete with the big boys will go poorly, either because 1. They lack the professional expertise to make a comparable product, or 2. They lack the cybersecurity expertise to avoid a major cyberattack. ​ Regardless, since semi stocks have soared while software stocks have cratered, one would expect the market believes this story and investors should continue to expect semi and software stocks to move in opposite directions. If the aforementioned thesis is wrong, AI demand would decline and enterprise software demand would rise. ​ This brings me to Microsoft: they have the best of both worlds but are treated as the worst. Their stock does not seem to be getting any of the upside from hyperscaler demand and the stock gets beaten down because of their software revenues (which I do not see being replaced anytime soon). ​ I do see their OpenAI partnership as an increasing drag on their stock as Anthropic is cleaning their clock as of late. But if Azure demand rises or 365 demand rises, we should see some level of bullishness on either their cloud or software revenues.. Right? ​ TLDR; MSFT seems oversold to me.