Elevated Daily Volatility in the S&P 500 Has Historically Coincided With Market Stress

Daily volatility has been unusually elevated this year & a century of S&P 500 data suggests today’s market Is unusually volatile/ unstable…. The S&P 500 has closed up or down at least 100 bps on 26% of trading days this year thus far. This is makes 2026 the 38th most volatile calendar year since 1928 by that measure. That does not guarantee a bear market, but the historical company is not exactly comforting considering that essentially all comparable years occurred during, immediately before, or shortly after major drawdowns, recessions, crashes, or periods of severe market stress. A lot of the most volatile days have been a direct result of the market reacting extremely strongly President Trump’s truth social posts about the war in Iran around “peace deals,” opening the Strait of Hormuz, and temporary ceasefire agreements. Amidst this backdrop, y/y CPI is printing at a multi-year high, while employment numbers have remained strong. The new fed chair spoke about bringing back price stability and the bond market/ predictions markets are suggesting that at least 1 rate hike is likely by the end of the year. Is president Trump currently playing with fire by creating this level of volatility? And why is the market reacting so harshly to his posts regardless of whether there is ‘truth’ to them or not?