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Visa at 28x earnings: "wonderful company at fair price" or just expensive? Running it through Buffett's framework

u/valbolt · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · June 20, 2026 at 15:01 · ⬆ 15 pts · 💬 31 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • Post analyzes Visa (V) through Buffett’s framework, concluding it’s a “wonderful company at fair price” but not a deep value opportunity.
  • Author highlights strong moat, high margins, and FCF exceeding net income, yet flags net debt and 3.35% FCF yield as margin-of-safety concerns.
  • Suggests an entry zone of $320-$330 with support at $310, resistance at $355, and a risk-reward of 1:1.6.
Score 15
Comments 31
Upvote % 76%
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Ideas
u/valbolt Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Visa has 97.8% gross margins, 67% operating margins, 60% ROE, and $20.84B FCF (exceeds net income); the network effect moat is durable for 20+ years. Current P/E of 28.5x and forward P/E of 22x, with PEG of 1.44x, are acceptable for a high-quality compounder; technical support at $310 and suggested entry zone $320-$330 offer a favorable risk-reward. The author implies that buying Visa near support provides a reasonable entry for long-term investors who prioritize moat durability over strict FCF yield thresholds. Net debtor position ($10B net debt) introduces refinancing risk in a high-rate environment; 3.35% FCF yield fails the 5% margin-of-safety threshold; macro headwinds could pressure multiples.
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This Reddit post, published June 20, 2026, features u/valbolt discussing V. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/valbolt  · Tickers: V