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**TLDR:** VG is a hated, filthy play where the market is losing its mind over leverage and lawsuits while ignoring that this thing is about to become an absolute LNG monster. If Plaquemines ramps, BP damages don't completely bankrupt them, and CP2 stays on track, this thing gets re-rated hard. The market is pricing it like a courtroom coin flip instead of valuing the massive incoming cash flow.
Everyone here wants a stock after it already 5x’d, then calls you a bagholder if you try to pitch one before the easy gains are completely obvious.
I posted a longer VG DD earlier and it got sent to heaven and hell in about 30 minutes. A few people debated numbers, but the rest just screamed AI slop, bagholder, insider pump, and every other WSB classic until the mods nuked it. Go ahead and nuke this one too.
I ignored Venture Global ($VG) at first because it looked like another cheap energy stock drowning in debt and legal disasters. But the market is pricing this like a bankrupt courtroom coin flip while ignoring that it's about to become one of the bigger LNG exporters if they don’t trip over themselves.
Look at the capacity numbers. Calcasieu Pass is running 12.4 MTPA. Plaquemines is 28.0 MTPA. CP2 is 29.0 MTPA. That’s almost 70 MTPA of capacity if they don’t screw up execution. For comparison, Cheniere is around 51 MTPA today and sits at a $55B+ market cap. VG is sitting at a $27B cap right now around $11/share and guiding for $8.2B-$8.5B EBITDA in 2026.
The lawsuit overhang is what everyone is choking on. During Calcasieu's commissioning, Russia invaded Ukraine, LNG spot prices went parabolic, and VG sold gas into the spot market instead of giving it to long-term contract guys like BP and Shell. It looks sketchy, but the legal tail risk is tightening up. Shell and Repsol rulings actually favored VG, and Edison and Unipec settled. BP is the only massive elephant left. They won on liability, so now it’s just about damages. If it’s $1B-$2B, it sucks but they live. If it’s $5B+, we’re cooked. That’s the actual gamble here.
As for the $37B+ debt - yeah, it’s massive. This isn’t some safe little compounder, it’s a heavily levered play. But they just locked in $15B of financing for CP2 and pushed their debt out to the mid-2030s. Everyone knows they have debt, the only question that matters is if EBITDA ramps fast enough to cover it.
Also yeah, I saw the “I worked there and it’s a toxic dumpster fire” comments. Glassdoor reviews basically say great pay, overworked people, and rough management. Fine. I’m not trying to date the company. A company can be miserable to work for and still make shareholders money. People said the same emotional stuff when I posted UNH after it sold off. Batshit company, I’m toast, Wendy’s, whatever. I made money because the trade was about risk/reward, not employee vibes.
The “nobody trusts them” bear case also looks weak. If buyers actually hated them enough to walk, they’d walk. Instead, guys like Mitsui, Tokyo Gas, TotalEnergies, and EnBW are still signing long-term deals with VG even after the arbitration mess. They might hate management, but they want the gas.
Qatar ramping North Field supply faster is a real price risk, but my VG bet is about Plaquemines ramping successfully and long-term contracts turning into actual cash flow. Qatar can pressure pricing, but buyers don’t just get to rip up 20-year deals because more gas shows up. Plus, Hormuz is still a massive geopolitical chokepoint. If things get spicy in the Middle East, U.S. Gulf Coast LNG starts looking a lot more useful for diversification.
The most interesting part to me is the Waha gas angle. Most people model LNG using Henry Hub prices. VG is trying to source cheaper Permian gas from Waha, where prices literally collapse toward zero when pipelines get choked. If they can get CP2 feedgas at $1.20 instead of Henry Hub at $2.50, that’s a massive cost edge. On 29 MTPA, that’s easily $1.5B+ in annual savings if the math holds up. They’re also building internal processing units (NRUs) to clean up cheap off-spec gas themselves and keep midstream margins.
AI data centers need insane power too, and natural gas is going to feed that whether environmentalists like it or not. Utilities still need power that actually shows up when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t doing charity work.
The big catalyst is Plaquemines in 2026. If it reaches commercial operations and ramps up, the narrative flips from “can these guys build a project?” to “they are printing cash at scale.” That’s when the market stops treating this like a courtroom coin flip and starts repricing it more like a major LNG infrastructure platform.
Lastly, there’s some weird Dec 2026 options open interest. Like 87k contracts on the $12.50 calls and 88k on the $7.50 puts. Same expiration. Probably a collar or some institutional hedge, idk, someone with more wrinkles can explain it in the comments. I’m just watching the business.
Position: 1,850 shares
350 shares in Roth
10 Jan 2028 $10 calls.
Clown me in 2028 if I’m wrong.