No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
Author expresses no own directional investment judgment on SPCX; only asks questions and states a plan to wait, with no fundamental rationale or catalyst for a position.
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I’m trying to understand the IPO mechanics and possible sell pressure after the lock-up period.
From what I understand, only a small percentage of the total shares are currently available to trade publicly, while most of the shares are still held by early investors, insiders, or pre-IPO shareholders. That limited float could be one reason the price is being pushed up so strongly right now. (Which is designed this way to enrichen the early-locked-investors?)
My concern is what happens when more locked shares become available. If early shareholders bought at a much lower price, for example around $135 or less, they may have a strong reason to take profit once they are allowed to sell. That could create major selling pressure. Even a bigger drop since the first release is about 20% and we retail people are trading just 4% of the stocks between ourselves?
Because of that, I’m thinking it may be safer to wait until at least the first quarterly report, or until the 180-day lock-up period is over, before deciding whether to buy.
Am I understanding this correctly, or am I missing something important about how the lock-up and float work?