For decades, Wall Street built models to predict recessions, inflation, interest rates, hurricanes, earthquakes, and corporate defaults.

Now they're building models to predict wars. Not just the economic impact of wars. The probability of wars starting in the first place. As geopolitical tensions rise around the world, investors are increasingly treating military conflicts as something that can be quantified, modeled, and priced into portfolios. In other words: Wars are becoming another input in financial models. Part of me thinks this is rational. Markets have always priced risk. Another part of me thinks it's insane that we're reaching a point where analysts are assigning probabilities to future conflicts the same way meteorologists forecast storms. The uncomfortable question is: Does better forecasting reduce risk... Or does it simply create the illusion that inherently unpredictable events can be understood? History is full of wars that nobody expected. Do you think geopolitical forecasting will become a major investment industry, or is this just another example of Wall Street believing it can model things that are fundamentally unknowable?