ADBE: Wall Street thinks AI is coming for Adobe’s lunch. I think Adobe already put it behind a paywall and called it dinner.

I’m long ADBE because the market is reading AI backwards. The bear case: AI makes creative work easier, so Adobe dies. I think that misses the point. Adobe’s issue was never demand. Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere, Acrobat, and Creative Cloud are industry standard tools. The issue was usability. A normal person opens Photoshop, sees 400 buttons, and decides the image was fine anyway. AI fixes that. Adobe is already putting AI into its products: Firefly, Generative Fill, background removal, image extension, Acrobat AI, video tools, and generative credits. This is already in the product, not some 2032 investor deck fantasy. Adobe does not need to build distribution from zero. It already has designers, agencies, marketers, editors, enterprise teams, freelancers, students, and every office worker who has ever aged four years editing one sentence in a PDF. AI does not shrink Adobe’s market. It expands it. Professionals stay for workflow, precision, file formats, collaboration, licensing, compliance, and enterprise controls. Beginners finally get Adobe without needing therapy after opening Photoshop. Financially, this is not an AI SPAC running on vibes. Adobe reported $6.40B quarterly revenue, up 12% YoY, EPS of $4.60 GAAP / $6.06 non-GAAP, ARR of $26.06B, and $2.96B operating cash flow. The stock is around $223, roughly a $92B market cap, about 13x P/E. For a high-margin recurring-revenue software company with deep workflow lock-in, that does not look priced for perfection. First entry: $221.50. Second entry: $205.82. At that point I am no longer an investor. I am a Creative Cloud subscription in human form. Position: long ADBE.