SpaceX IPO is in 2 days. I read the entire S-1 so you don't have to. Heres the good, the bad and the absolutely insane

hellamarrie · 2026-06-10T04:47:56+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post reviews SpaceX’s upcoming IPO (ticker SPCX), detailing its dominant launch and Starlink business, massive $2.6B loss, $75B raise, 95x revenue valuation, and Elon Musk’s near-total voting control. - The author presents both bullish (Starlink growth, market share) and bearish (cash burn, valuation, Musk risk) cases but leans skeptical, calling the valuation “absolutely insane” and noting history of poor post-IPO performance for similar high-multiple companies. - Quality assessment: Well-researched due diligence (S-1 reading) mixed with speculative warnings; not pure noise, but lacks a firm personal position. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === SPCX - AVOID | confidence: 0.65 | sentiment: -0.50 Speaker: u/hellamarrie Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The IPO prices at $1.77T valuation (~95x 2025 revenue), with $30B annual cash burn, $2.6B loss, and a CEO with 85% voting control who cannot be removed. 2. THE BRIDGE: Historical data shows companies IPO-ing at such extreme multiples lose ~50% of value within three years; combined with Musk’s erratic control and Starlink’s profitability dependence, the asymmetric risk/reward favors avoidance. 3. THE VERDICT: Even if Starlink grows, the burn rate and single-person risk make this a speculative gamble; most rational capital can find better risk-adjusted returns elsewhere. 4. RISKS: Starlink subscription growth could accelerate and surprise to the upside; Musk could pivot to profitability; retail hype may drive short-term gains post-IPO. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - 95x rev multiple far above mega-caps (<30x) - $30B/year burn vs $75B raise (~2.5 yr runway) - Elon’s 85% super-voting prevents board pushback - History suggests 50% crash in 3 years - Community skeptical (Grok worthless, Musk risk) === COMMENTS SUMMARY === Top comments overwhelmingly bearish: one user calls Grok and space transport “worthless” and Musk a “white supremacist with mental health issues”; another says the stock is purely

AI Summary

Summary

The post reviews SpaceX’s upcoming IPO (ticker SPCX), detailing its dominant launch and Starlink business, massive $2.6B loss, $75B raise, 95x revenue valuation, and Elon Musk’s near-total voting control.
The author presents both bullish (Starlink growth, market share) and bearish (cash burn, valuation, Musk risk) cases but leans skeptical, calling the valuation “absolutely insane” and noting history of poor post-IPO performance for similar high-multiple companies.
Quality assessment: Well-researched due diligence (S-1 reading) mixed with speculative warnings; not pure noise, but lacks a firm personal position.

Score 58

Comments 62

Upvote % 66%

▶ Full Post Text

On june 12, the largest ipo in the history of financial markets goes live. $75 billion raise thats like more than triple what saudi aramco pulled in 2019 which was the previous record. Bitpanda is also listing spcx from day one with fractional shares. I spent the last few days actually going through the S1 filing ,

The spacex handles 82% of all US space launches and 45% of every commercial space contract on the planet while starlink hit 10m  subs across 164 countries by end of q1 2026, roughly double what it was a year ago and connectivity revenue came in at $3.26 billion in just q1 alone, 

Now heres the catch, spacex posted a $2.6B loss in 2025 and 2026 operating loss then ballooned to $1.9 billion so over the past four quarters the company burned through roughly 30B in cash which means at current burn rate the entire $75 billion ipo raise is gone in about 2.5 years. The ai unit alone spent $12.7 billion in capex in 2025 and another $7.7 billion in just Q1 2026. (sorry for too much no.s)and at $1.77 trillion this is priced at nearly 95 times its 2025 revenue so even the most expensive mega cap tech companies rarely trade above 30x sales and history isnt kind here either, companies that ipo at sky high valuations like this have typically lost around half their value within three years.

Then theres the elon factor and this is the one that should genuinely give you pause, mr.musk owns class b supervoting stock giving him about 85% of the voting power and the only person who can remove musk as CEO is musk himself lol. Look I like the guy but you have to be honest you are not buying a company in the traditional sense here. You are buying a ticket to ride along with whatever elon decides to do next across spacex, xai, X, neuralink

So what is SPCX actually after all the noise? After the xAI merger in feb you are getting starlink which is the fastest growing internet service on the planet, grok AI, the X platform and a balance sheet sitting on $770 million in bitcoin controlled by one man with 85% of the votes

I'm genuinely not telling you to buy it or avoid it, both cases are strong and reasonable people seriously disagree on this one. What I will say is that this sub is going to have some of the most interesting takes on this over the next 48 hours and I m genuinely curious where people land on the valuation question specifically.

Not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.

Summary

▶ Full Post Text

Ideas

More from Reddit — r/investing