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First, lets go over what the report said:
80% of the code going into Anthropic's own codebase right now is being written by Claude, not assisted by Claude, written by Claude. Their engineers are shipping 8x more code per quarter than they were before.
The autonomous task length has been doubling every four months, Claude Opus 3 in early 2024 could handle a 4 minute task on its own, today's model handles 12 hour tasks, and they're projecting weeks by 2027.
Their frontier model now beats human researchers on next step decisions 64% of the time, six months ago it was 51%.
That trajectory is insane when you think about what it means for infrastructure.
Every time that capability curve moves up, the compute demand doesn't just grow proportionally, it compounds. A model running week long autonomous tasks doesn't need 2x the memory and networking of one running hour long tasks, it needs exponentially more, more HBM, more switching fabric, more storage just to hold the data trails those agents leave behind.
So while everyone was losing their minds over AVGO not raising a guide on a number that doesn't even report for 18 months, the company literally building the frontier model published a paper confirming the demand curve is accelerating, not plateauing. From both earnings reports and the report from Anthropic, I just can't get onboard with any plateau narrative.
The use case just got bigger not smaller. I understand the headwinds that caused the correction last week, but to me it's just a blip in timeline if you zoom out, we don't even know how big this can get and
MRVL is the networking layer those agent clusters run through, MU is supplying the memory those models train on, ANET is switching data between every server in those facilities. Just as specific examples, but any semi ETF gets you generalized exposure.
None of those businesses shrink when AI starts writing itself faster.
Positions in MRVL, MU, and ANET - willing to ride whatever comes next (expecting more downside this week)
Source: Anthropic Institute - Recursive Self Improvement