Anthropic has literally no moat without AGI.

The whole company's premise is a gamble on AGI. Claude Code is not sticky at all, it can be easily swapped out for Codex, Cursor, Opencode or Devin. for a fraction of the price. It doesn't have the stickiness of traditional SAAS because it has no data gravity. Opus is great but other coding models are always on the back foot. Chinese Coding Models are arguably close to the same level at a fraction of the cost because Anthropic is held back by electricity and data centre costs. The Chinese are too, but they pay physical labour and electricity costs are substantially lower, so they can continually undercut without issues on the global market. Data centres have to be US domestic due to data concerns. The only things that grants them the edge right now is western enterprise customers are unlikely to use chinese models (but that's not stopping small-mid size companies). Therefore their only shot at redemption is AGI. If there are not getting to AGI, then their revenue growth will plateau but they are forced to continually re-invest in electricity, ai research and chips to remain competitive by training the next model. Therefore their margins will continually remain terrible even if token cost goes down over time. Furthermore eventually we will see a point where the model is ‘good enough’. If my coding model is good enough to do all the tasks in my mid-size business and hits 80% SWE benchmark, then what I need from there is business context and not another 1-2% improvement on SWE benchmark. So I don’t need to pay something ridiculous for Opus 8.x, I’ll just use an open weight model that matches Opus 7.x. They know this too, so they are desperately scrambling to enter new stickier product categories like Design and Finance but I don't think it's taking (unless something can tell me it is). If they can build some type of entire claude suite for every faction of the business, and sell that as a package, then I guess it could work. That would probably be their only way out of this. But then they just become another glorified saas company with a nice AI lab quirk that is loss-making. One that faces the same problem of seat compression that it invariably introduced itself. Therefore dario and sam altman have completely changed their tune on AI job losses, because it would be existential for their SaaS business. They are also pushing for government to take an interest because once they become a SaaS business - they have to spin off their loss making AI Lab and need taxpayers to fund it, because it will actually drag their margins to trash. Because AGI doesn't even seem to be feasible through scaling LLMs. But ironically if we do get AGI then we would get some lesser version of Citrini (because AGI still needs time to absorb context). And then the US is likely fucked, and data centres may get attacked and Anthropic still loses.