No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
The author explicitly states they are not claiming the move will happen and frames the thesis as a question/speculation rather than a firm directional investment judgment.
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I’ve been digging into SPCE ahead of the SpaceX IPO and I think the setup is more interesting than most people realize.
Here’s what stands out:
• SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in years.
• Retail traders looking for a space-related momentum play have very few liquid optionable names to choose from.
• SPCE already proved recently that it can move violently when volume returns.
• The stock is still well below its recent squeeze high despite the main catalyst week finally arriving.
• Short interest remains elevated enough that a sharp move higher could force additional buying pressure.
• Options activity will be worth watching closely because a move through key strikes could accelerate momentum.
The interesting part to me is the math:
SPCE traded above $8 recently. A move back to those highs would already represent a massive gain from current levels. If momentum traders, options traders, and short covering all show up at the same time, the move could extend beyond what most people currently expect.
I’m not claiming it will happen. I’m saying the risk/reward appears unusually asymmetric heading into the biggest space-sector catalyst in years.
What is the strongest bear case against another SPCE squeeze attempt this week?