Summary
- The author built an evolutionary trading system for BTC/ETH that ran live for 48 days (2,729 trades), achieving a profit factor of 1.15 vs a backtest target of 1.3, with a lower win rate (33.6% vs 45%) and a longer max losing streak (18 vs 5).
- The post-mortem identifies two key failures: the system did not learn from live market regime shifts (it optimized on fixed history), and it developed hidden concentration in a single coin (ADA) despite being diversified by strategy.
- The author concludes the system had only a weak edge, did not scale it, and warns against trusting backtests without live adaptation and risk controls.
Quality assessment: This is a well-researched, detailed post-mortem of a live trading experiment, offering genuine empirical insights into the gap between backtest and live performance. It's not a trade pitch but a reflective analysis.